Egypt and Senegal meet for a place in the Africa Cup of Nations final, with two heavyweights chasing history. Senegal aim for a third final in four editions, while Egypt target a record 10th appearance in the showpiece and extend a run of seven straight semi-final wins in the competition.
Recent AFCON records underline how evenly matched the sides appear. Senegal have reached the final in 2019 and 2022, beating Egypt on penalties in the 2021 decider. Egypt are level with Ghana on nine finals and could stand alone if the Pharaohs reach Tangier’s main event.
Both teams advanced through tense quarter-finals. Egypt survived a late rally from Ivory Coast in a 3-2 win, after previously needing extra time to overcome Benin 3-1 in the last 16. Senegal
dominated 10-man Mali in a 1-0 victory, controlling the contest despite the narrow scoreline.
Past AFCON meetings between Senegal and Egypt have usually been tight contests. The nations have met five times at the tournament, with two wins each and one draw. Those games produced only six goals, three per team, for an average of 1.2 goals per match.
Hossam Hassan stressed that the level across the continent has risen and praised this AFCON’s quality. "The standard of African football has increased markedly with the quality of players in each team being very impressive," he said. "There have been so many teams here with world-class players, not only the experienced players but also youngsters, who have match-winning ability and an incredible skill set. "
Hassan also noted the tactical detail involved before facing Senegal. "Every side has its weaknesses, and we have studied Senegal in depth as we have planned for this game. We are sure they will be analysing our approach, too, so this could be decided on the small details. I don't give a damn about [the criticism]. There are those who have confidence in what we are trying to achieve and those who are sceptical. I pay it no attention. "
Senegal head coach Pape Thiaw highlighted Egypt’s organisation while backing Senegal’s approach. "The Egyptian team plays excellently and knows how to defend, but we play in a balanced way and hope to show our best performance in the match," he said. "Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush are two great and outstanding players, but we are facing the entire Egyptian national team. With all due respect to them, we are determined to advance and secure a spot in the final. "
AFCON semi-final: Egypt vs Senegal players to watch
Sadio Mane again carries major attacking responsibility for Senegal. Mane’s next goal or assist will make the forward the first player on record since 2010 to reach 20 AFCON goal involvements, currently standing on 10 goals and nine assists. One more strike would also move Mane beyond 10 goals at the tournament, joining an elite group of scorers.
Mohamed Salah has driven Egypt’s attack in the 2025 edition. Salah has contributed to a goal in each of four matches, with four goals and one assist. The forward has completed six defensive-line-breaking passes, with only Mane, on eight, recording more among attackers. Salah’s 11 AFCON goals equal Hassan, leaving Hassan El-Shazly ahead for Egypt with 12.
AFCON semi-final: Egypt vs Senegal match prediction and Opta odds
Senegal’s recent attacking record at the Africa Cup of Nations is strong. The holders have scored in all nine matches played since the start of the 2023 edition, hitting 20 goals at 2.2 per game. Defensively, Senegal have kept 18 clean sheets in 27 AFCON fixtures across the last five tournaments, four more than any other side in that period.
Historical numbers and current data suggest another tight battle. Opta’s model gives Senegal the highest chance of victory in normal time, with Egypt slightly behind and a substantial likelihood of a draw. The table below sets out the win probabilities for each possible outcome based on that analysis.
| Outcome | Opta win probability |
|---|---|
| Senegal win | 42.9% |
| Draw | 26.0% |
| Egypt win | 31.1% |
Underlying tournament numbers reveal why many observers expect a cautious semi-final. Of AFCON fixtures played at least five times, only Cameroon versus Ghana has produced fewer goals per game than Senegal against Egypt. The 2021 final, which ended level before Senegal’s 4-2 penalty success, remains a recent reference for another close contest.
The Pharaohs completed their final preparation in Agadir before travelling to Tangier for the last-four tie, with the Egypt camp sharing images of training on social media. That session underlined the scale of the occasion, as Egypt chase another final appearance and a chance to move closer to an eighth AFCON title.
#The Pharaohs have completed their last training in Agadir before heading to Tangier for the Semifinals #egyptnt pic.twitter.com/ZZcTLs1TqgEgypt National Team (@EgyptNT_EN) January 12, 2026
Both teams arrive with strong records and high expectations for this Africa Cup of Nations semi-final. Senegal look to maintain scoring form and defensive strength, while Egypt rely on semi-final experience and Salah’s influence. The match in Tangier will decide whether the defending champions return to the final or the record winners move one step ahead.
