In the modern NBA, the gospel is simple: shoot threes or get to the rim. Analytics have painted the midrange jumper as a statistical wasteland, an inefficient relic of a bygone era. But reports of its death have been greatly exaggerated.
The Shot Analytics Taught Us to Hate
For the better
part of a decade, front offices and coaching staffs waged a statistical war against the 18-foot pull-up. The math seemed undeniable. A player shooting 34% from three generates 1.02 points per attempt, while a player shooting a red-hot 50% from midrange nets just 1.0 point per attempt. The conclusion was clear: why settle for a lower-yield shot? Offenses were rebuilt around this 'Moreyball' philosophy, named for the executive who championed the three-or-layup approach. Defenses adapted accordingly, learning that they could largely ignore vast swaths of the court, packing the paint to prevent layups and aggressively running shooters off the three-point line. The game became a battle of geometry and percentages, and the midrange jumper was the first casualty.
Where Math Meets a Brick Wall
The regular season is one thing; the playoffs are another beast entirely. In a seven-game series, defenses become smarter, more physical, and relentlessly focused on taking away an opponent's primary strengths. Transition opportunities evaporate. The pace grinds to a halt, forcing teams into an endless string of half-court sets. Suddenly, those clean looks at the rim and wide-open corner threes that defined a team's regular-season offense are gone. This is where the analytics-only approach begins to crack. When a defense is designed specifically to concede the midrange, an offense that refuses to take it becomes predictable and easy to stifle. The shot clock dwindles, and stars find themselves trapped between a wall of defenders at the rim and chasers on the perimeter. A possession that ends in a contested, off-balance three is worth zero points—less than even the most 'inefficient' midrange look.
The Signature of a Superstar Scorer
This is the space where superstars thrive. Players like Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Kawhi Leonard, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have built legacies on their ability to create and convert in the midrange. For them, it isn't a 'settle' shot; it's a weapon. When a play breaks down, they can get to their spot—the elbow, the free-throw line extended—and rise up for a high-percentage look that lesser players can't generate. It becomes a release valve for the entire offense. A player who is a legitimate threat from all three levels—at the rim, from three, and in the midrange—is nearly impossible to guard. The defense is forced to respect every inch of the floor, which in turn creates openings for everyone else. Look at the NBA's recent scoring champions and playoff heroes; you won't find many who have completely abandoned the area inside the arc.
More Than Just Two Points
The value of a credible midrange game extends beyond the points it produces. It's a tactical tool that keeps a defense honest. When a defender has to guard against the pullup jumper, they can't sag back into the paint to help on a drive. This opens up driving lanes for the ballhandler and creates space for bigs to operate near the basket. It also makes 'drop' coverage—a common defensive scheme where the center hangs back to protect the rim—vulnerable. Players like Chris Paul and Jalen Brunson have made careers out of punishing big men who give them too much space, calmly dribbling into a wideopen 15footer. In this sense, the midrange shot is a key that unlocks the rest of the offense, forcing defensive adjustments that lead to easier baskets for teammates.
