Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Coming off a league MVP season where he tossed an incredible 46 touchdowns, it’s easy to see why drafters are eager to grab Matthew Stafford. But history sends a clear warning signal about that touchdown number. Stafford’s 7.7% touchdown rate in 2025
was a massive career high, and quarterbacks who reach that mark almost universally see a significant drop-off the following year. In fact, after his previous two seasons with 40-plus touchdowns, his numbers fell sharply. Paying a premium for the 38-year-old quarterback means you are betting on him to repeat a statistical anomaly, which is one of the riskiest wagers in fantasy football. Let someone else chase last year's stats while you draft a quarterback with a more projectable ceiling.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor looked like an unstoppable force for the first half of 2025 before quarterback Daniel Jones went down with an injury. However, drafting him as a top-five running back in 2026 ignores the significant risks surrounding the Colts' offense. Jones is returning from a torn Achilles on his plant foot, which could limit his arm strength and ability to stretch the field. On top of that, top wideout Alec Pierce is also recovering from surgery. This could lead to defenses stacking the box against the run, making Taylor's life much more difficult. He is a prime candidate for touchdown regression, and the entire offense has a lower ceiling than his lofty draft price suggests.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
After a record-breaking 2025 season where he led all tight ends in targets, it's no surprise that Trey McBride is being drafted in the late second or early third round. The problem is, you’re drafting him at his absolute ceiling. Those massive volume numbers came with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who hyper-targeted him. The Cardinals spent the No. 3 overall pick on running back Jeremiyah Love, signaling a desire for a more balanced offense. Arizona may also turn to a rookie quarterback later in the season, and there’s no guarantee he will lean on McBride the same way. He’s still a top-five tight end, but his current ADP requires a repeat of a historic outlier season, which is unlikely.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey is a fantasy legend, but he stands out as one of the clearest regression candidates for 2026. The primary concerns are age and workload. He enters his age-30 season after accumulating a staggering 413 regular-season touches, plus more in the playoffs. History is littered with running backs who have fallen off a cliff after such a demanding campaign, especially as they enter their thirties. After finishing as the top running back last season, his ADP has shot back into the early first round, a price point that leaves zero room for error. The combination of injury risk, massive mileage, and high draft cost makes him a terrifying proposition.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers
After a fantastic rookie season with over 1,000 yards, many fantasy managers are drafting Tetairoa McMillan as a top-20 wide receiver, expecting a major leap. However, a closer look at his 2025 performance reveals inconsistency. Despite the impressive season-long stats, he delivered more than 15 fantasy points in just three games. That suggests he may not have the elite weekly upside his fourth-round ADP demands. Furthermore, increased target competition is coming. Jalen Coker earned a contract extension and his role grew late last season, cutting into McMillan's target share. With Bryce Young still developing at quarterback, you're drafting McMillan at his ceiling, not his floor.
