The long march to March is officially underway.
The 2026-27 men’s college basketball
season began last week with seven full days' worth of games. While many of the contests were laughably one-sided affairs between major-conference opponents and overmatched foes from smaller leagues, there were some early and informative glimpses about the 365 Division I teams and what they might be able to accomplish this season.There were several matchups between teams ranked in the top 25 of the preseason USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, with No. 1 Florida beating No. 17 Miami, No. 5 UConn rolling past No. 20 Michigan in a rematch of last year’s national title game and No. 9 Virginia drubbing No. 13 Arkansas. There were upsets, too, like Valparaiso going on the road
to knock off No. 24 Purdue in double overtime and East Texas A&M stunning Oklahoma.
Between the excitement over the start of the season, the small sample size of games and the desire to make sense of what we’ve seen, there’s a tendency to make big, sweeping proclamations about what’s unfolded thus far. Oftentimes, they’re overreactions — the kinds of opinions that look ludicrous come March, if it even takes that long for them to age like a carton of milk locked in a sauna. Sometimes, though, they’re early indications that something we believed going into the season turned out not to be true.
So what are some potential overreactions from the first week of the season? And how should we judge them?
Let’s take a look:
College basketball Week 1 overreactions
UCLA is a national title threat
Verdict: Not an overreaction
For much of Mick Cronin’s first seven years in Westwood, the Bruins have been solid, making the NCAA tournament five times in the past six seasons, but seldom spectacular. The Bruins have one run past the Sweet 16 (which came as a No. 11 seed) and only three appearances in the final Coaches Poll of the season.
The idea that the trend would continue into this season was immediately turned on its head. UCLA got arguably the most impressive win of the young season for any team when it went out and knocked off No. 4 Arizona by nine in a neutral-site matchup of old Pac-12 rivals, a win that had the famously dour Cronin grinning ear-to-ear afterward. Four days later, it followed that up with a 51-point shellacking of North Florida, a game in which it went on a 35-0 run at one point.
The Bruins have much of what you want out of a team that can win it all: They’ve got what looks like one of the country’s best backcourts in Trent Perry and Jaylen Petty. Like most any Cronin team, they’re tough-minded defensively. And, most interestingly, they’ve got a potential game-changing superstar in 17-year-old Nikola Kusturica, a 6-foot-9 Serbian forward who is averaging 19 points per game and shooting 56.5% from the field.
UCLA came into the season just outside the top 25 of the Coaches Poll. It’s an oversight that already looks silly — and may look even crazier by the first weekend in April.
Purdue is in trouble
Verdict: Overreaction
There’s perhaps been no bigger disappointment through one week than Purdue, which started last week No. 24 in the Coaches Poll and ended it with the program’s first 0-2 start since the 1976-77 season. Those losses weren’t met with equal anxiety. A six-point loss to No. 12 Gonzaga in Las Vegas to open the season is respectable, if not a bit encouraging. But a double-overtime loss at home four days later to Valparaiso justifiably set off some alarm bells.
This was never going to be an easy season for the Boilermakers, who were having to replace their top four scorers from last season, including program pillars Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer. This is still a team with some promising pieces, though, like guard C.J. Cox and 7-foot-4 big man Daniel Jacobsen.
The loss to Valpo is jarring, but this is still a Matt Painter-led outfit that’s been a model of consistent success for 20 years, with 17 NCAA tournament appearances during that time. Purdue should be fine. And if it needs any more inspiration, just look back at that 1976-77 squad, which rebounded from its 0-2 start to go 19-9 and make the NCAA tournament.
Illinois’ offense is the best in the country
Verdict: Overreaction (but only slightly)
After making the program’s first Final Four in 21 years last season, Brad Underwood scrapped his team’s record-setting offense. As CJ Moore detailed in an excellent story in The Athletic, Underwood abandoned the ball-screen-heavy offense the Fighting Illini employed last year in favor of a free-flowing approach with no set plays.
So far, the results have been astonishing.
In two games, Illinois has scored 232 points in its first two games, a scoring average that would rank it in a tie for 11th among NBA teams. In those wins, which were decided by a combined 107 points, it has shot 57.1% from the field and has six players averaging at least 12 points per game, all of whom are shooting at least 50%.
The competition, Fairleigh Dickinson and Penn, wasn’t overwhelming by any stretch of the imagination, but with players like Andrej Stojakovic, Quentin Coleman and Stefan Vaaks, this is going to be an extremely potent group. The primary thing limiting its ceiling for now is the uncertain playing status of preseason All-American David Mirkovic, who is recovering from offseason foot surgery and underwent an emergency appendectomy on Oct. 31.
Memphis will be an NCAA Tournament team and take Penny Hardaway off the hot seat
Verdict: Not an overreaction
Maybe no team had a better or more pleasantly surprising first week of the season than Memphis. The Tigers didn’t receive a single vote in the preseason Coaches Poll and weren’t even picked to win their own conference in what was setting up to be a do-or-die season for coach Penny Hardaway. But in their first two games, they beat No. 14 Iowa State and followed it up with a home win against preseason Atlantic 10 favorite VCU.
The biggest revelation for Memphis in that pair of victories was Jayden Reid, a Northwestern transfer who scored a combined 58 points in those wins and so far looks every part of the lead guard who can carry this team.
Hardaway made sweeping changes after a disastrous 13-19 campaign in 2025-26, overhauling his roster and coaching staff. Plenty of tests still await the Tigers, who have games this week against No. 11 Louisville and No. 21 Vanderbilt, and they’ll have a sizable obstacle in their own conference in the form of Wichita State.
But it’s difficult, if not impossible, not to be impressed with the early returns.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can UCLA win it all? Is Purdue cooked? Judging college basketball Week 1 overreactions
