If you’re a Democrat, the lead-up to the midterm elections is starting to feel like a magic carpet ride through a landscape of gum drops, chocolate rivers and mountains of cake. The party is favored to take control of the House of Representatives, and its odds of winning the Senate keep going up.
President Donald Trump’s incompetence is on vivid display. Rather than helping Republican candidates by staying away from them, he’s putting his wildly unpopular self front and center, rambling at poorly attended rallies, amping up vile, racist threats against Somali residents in Minnesota, and sending his Defense secretary out to announce that an upcoming military execution by firing squad will be livestreamed.
Trump’s self-aggrandizing gambit is taking
a toll on Republicans. On Oct. 9, the Cook Political Report shifted 18 additional House races from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat,” making an already ugly electoral outlook uglier.
It’s hard for liberals not to feel … oh, how I hate to type this … confident.
Democrats should fear confidence ahead of the midterms
So, about that. My confidence, at least as it applies to politics, was crushed the first time Americans elected Trump president. The crushed remains of my confidence were ground to dust and swept away forever the second time Americans elected Trump president.
So while the polling, for a liberal fellow like myself, appears delightful – inject Trump’s sewer-basin-level approval numbers into my veins, please – I am kept up nights worrying about Democratic voters growing overconfident.
Because no matter how hard you say “The president is deep underwater on every issue” or “Gas,food and health care costs are all people care about, and they’re sky high” or “Republicans are a bunch of sorry Trump toadies and voters are sick of their BS,” there’s always the counter of: “Well, voters did elect the biggest conman in American history to office twice, including once after he tried to overturn a free and fair election.”
It’s a little hard for me to hop back on the confidence bandwagon when I’ve been mercilessly knocked off it on two occasions.
A confident Democrat is one who has forgotten recent history
Even after Trump won the first time, Democrats couldn’t have envisioned how bad things would get. And this second go-round – with armed federal agents rounding people up on the street and killing U.S. citizens, with Trump building ballrooms and arches to honor himself, with the administration’s corruption fully naked – is orders of magnitude worse.
So here’s my suggestion to all Democratic candidates, political advisers and, most important, voters: BE AFRAID. BE VERY, VERY AFRAID.
From now on and forevermore, even when the MAGA movement is in the rearview mirror, Democrats should assume losing is a real possibility. They need to not just sprint across the finish line; they need to keep sprinting an extra mile just in case some Republican moved the finish line when Democrats weren’t looking.
Democratic candidates should always assume they are underdogs
Democratic candidates need to campaign with confidence, yes, but with an internal fear akin to being chased by a grizzly bear who can’t afford groceries. Panic should be their default setting.
Democratic voters should hope for the best and perpetually fear the worst. They need to reorient themselves into believing confidence is for losers. They need to treat voting like its second only to breathing. (OK, maybe it should be third to breathing and eating. Gotta stay alive to vote.)
This isn’t just a case of, “Don’t jinx it!” There’s no superstition here.
Midterm polling looks good for Democrats, but don't trust that
Objectively, given the data on hand and basic common sense, I’d rather be a Democratic candidate in these midterms than a Republican one. But the world we live in now doesn’t always align with data. And given the fact that we now call Donald Trump “president,” it certainly doesn’t align with common sense.
Polls have a nasty tendency to miss things. Americans will inexplicably vote against their self-interest. Loony right-wing billionaires are pouring filthy amounts of money into elections.
So, my fellow liberals, feel happy the broader public seems to be rejecting Trump’s MAGA policies. But don’t you dare, not even for a moment, feel confident that a blue wave is coming to save us all. Don’t count any unhatched chickens, don’t think victory is in the bag and don’t ease up a bit before Nov. 3.
Democrats must be the party of all throttle, no brakes. Confidence is a luxury we, and the country, can no longer afford.
Follow USA TODAY columnist Rex Huppke on Bluesky at @rexhuppke.bsky.social and on Facebook at facebook.com/RexIsAJerk.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Democrats can't get overconfident about the midterms. Focus | Opinion
