With a little more than 40 days until Election Day in the U.S. Senate race in Texas, a new poll suggests the race may still be up for grabs for either candidate.
Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 1 percentage point, 47%- 46% — within the Texas Southern University
poll's margin. Published on Sept. 22, it also found that 3% of voters support Libertarian Ted Brown, while 4% remain undecided.The poll was conducted Sept. 15-19, surveying 1,800 Texans who are likely to cast a ballot in the November2026 and has a margin of error of 2.31 percentage points.
Here's a deeper look at the poll and how it compares to other September polls.
Ken Paxton, James Talarico remain in a dead heat in Texas Senate race
The TSU poll found that Talarico has a negative favorability rating, viewed favorably by 47% of likely
voters and unfavorably by 50% — a departure from several other September polls that had given him a net-positive score
Paxton also has a negative favorability rating, viewed favorably by 43% of likely voters and unfavorably by 55%.
It also found that 3% and 2%, respectively, of likely voters don't know enough about Talarico and Paxton to have an opinion.
Looking at the voter demographics, the poll found:
- Paxton leads Talarico among white likely voters, 56%-37%.
- Paxton leads Talarico among men, 51%-42%.
- Talarico leads Paxton among Latino voters, 57%-38%.
- Talarico leads Paxton among Black voters, 87%-10%.
- Talarico leads Paxton among women, 53%-42%.
- 99% of Democrats intend to vote for Talarico, with 0% intending to vote for Paxton, none for Brown and 1% still undecided.
- 84% of Republicans intend to vote for Paxton, with 7% intending to vote for Talarico, 4% for Brown and 5% still undecided.
Voters are also split by age. Paxton leads Talarico, 57% to 37%, among likely voters age 55 and older, while Talarico leads Paxton, 51% to 42%, among likely voters between the ages of 35 and 54. Talarico also leads among likely voters under 35, 76% to 18%.
What previous September Texas Senate polling show
This is the latest poll in September as the election cycle enters its final stretch to Election Day on Nov. 3.
Here's what September polls have shown so far:
- ReconMR Texas Poll (Sept. 17) — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%.
- Emerson College (Sept. 17) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.
- Mason-Dixon Polling & Research (Sept. 15) — Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%.
- SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%.
- AARP (Sept. 10) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
- N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%.
2026 election dates to know
- Oct. 5: Last day to register to vote.
- Oct. 19: Early voting begins.
- Oct. 23: Last day to apply for a ballot by mail. Application must be received, not postmarked, by this date.
- Oct. 30: Last day of early voting.
- Nov. 3, Election Day. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
- Nov. 3: Deadline for most mail ballots to be received is 7 p.m. on Election Day. Some properly postmarked ballots may be received by 5 p.m. Nov. 4.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Texas Senate poll shows Talarico, Paxton locked in tight race
