Microsoft Copilot AI had its worst week of the season thus far with its Week 3 picks.
After posting a record of 11-5 in each of the first two weeks of the 2026 NFL season, Copilot was only able to go 9-7 with its Week 3 predictions. Numerous upsets – including prime-time wins by the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos – were responsible for the chatbot's worst week to date.
Even so, Copilot still posted a winning record while impressively sniffing out the Las Vegas Raiders' win over the favorite New Orleans Saints. That certainly adds a feather to the chatbot's cap as USA TODAY Sports' experiment continues into Week 4 of the NFL season.
A simple process was used
to gather Copilot's picks. The AI chatbot was fed the following prompt, which helped it generate its 16 Week 1 picks.
- Can you predict the results of every Week 4 game for the 2026 NFL season and explain your logic for each prediction?
This week, we also prompted the chatbot to ensure it was using current-season results and injury data to inform its decisions.
As usual, Copilot interpreted the prompts without major issues. However, the chatbot occasionally provided outdated information. That wasn't overly surprising, as some Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle to keep up with the latest sports news and updates.
When Copilot produced errors, it was simply asked to fix them and reassess the prompt.
Below is a summation of Copilot's picks for Week 4, along with a brief, human-crafted analysis of each of the chatbot's answers.
NFL Week 4 picks: AI predicts scores for every game
- Copilot's Week 3 results: 9-7
- Copilot's 2026 season record: 31-17
Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Cleveland Browns 17
AI's take: The Steelers have a "steadier quarterback situation" and "the better defense" in this matchup, according to Copilot. That's why it is favoring Pittsburgh to win the short-week divisional matchup, even on the road.
Our take: Aaron Rodgers is coming off his best performance of the season, but the Browns have won back-to-back games during which Deshaun Watson has looked competent. This game is a true coin-flip, but don't be surprised if Todd Monken's squad makes it three victories in a row.
Indianapolis Colts 27, Washington Commanders 20
AI's take: Copilot said its analysis of this game would change "significantly" if Jayden Daniels is able to play. For now, it is backing an Indianapolis side that it said is "without notable active injuries."
Our take: Presumably, Copilot is considering Alec Pierce's absence an inactive injury since he is on IR. Either way, this matchup looks tougher for the Colts than many realize, as Washington ranks third in rushing yards allowed per game this season. If the Commanders can limit Jonathan Taylor, they may pull off a second consecutive win, even if Daniels isn't ready to return from his elbow injury.
Baltimore Ravens 34, Tennessee Titans 13
AI's take: Copilot called this game its "lock of the week." It opined the Ravens would "control this game from start to finish" behind Lamar Jackson and the team's defense.
Our take: Copilot didn't mention Derrick Henry, who is playing his first game against the Titans since joining the Ravens in 2024. He should be motivated to show well and could have a massive day in what should be an easy Ravens victory.
Buffalo Bills 31, New England Patriots 17
AI's take: Copilot is a big fan of the Bills, whom it referred to as "one of the AFC's most complete teams" across the first three weeks of the season. The chatbot also called Josh Allen a "big matchup problem" with which the Patriots' defense will have to contend.
Our take: Not only is Allen playing at an MVP level, but Drake Maye has accounted for one touchdown and seven turnovers across the first three games of the Patriots' season. Until he plays better, it will be hard to trust New England against upper-echelon competition.
Chicago Bears 24, New York Jets 16
AI's take: Copilot expressed concerns about how the Jets' offense would look given the "uncertainty" surrounding Breece Hall (thigh). It also liked that the Bears' offense is "trending upward," even with Caleb Williams out of the lineup.
Our take: It will be interesting to see whether Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent starts at quarterback for the Bears, but Copilot is right to favor them. They have been impressive even without their top weapons being available and productive, so they should be able to beat the Jets.
Cincinnati Bengals 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 24
AI's take: Joe Burrow is "difficult to bet against at home," in the opinion of Copilot. It believes the Bengals will win a "shootout" against the Jaguars in Week 4.
Our take: Burrow has posted a 22-16 home record across 38 career starts, so Copilot makes a good point. Jacksonville will provide Cincinnati a tough test, but the Bengals' offense is slightly more explosive, making them the better side to back here.
Houston Texans 27, Dallas Cowboys 23
AI's take: Copilot is sniffing out this spot as "a statement-game opportunity" for the Texans. It likes the matchup Houston's defensive front has against Dallas and believes the Texans will win "a tight game" at home.
Our take: The Texans' secondary has struggled to start the 2026 NFL season and has a tough matchup against Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. But will the Cowboys' defense be able to rattle C.J. Stroud enough to get a win? That will determine whether Dallas can pull off the win, so we'll split with Copilot on this pick.
New York Giants 23, Arizona Cardinals 20
AI's take: Copilot is backing the Giants because they are the home team in this matchup. That's how it determined the winner in this toss-up matchup, though it also noted the Giants had been "more consistent" to start the season than the Cardinals.
Our take: Yeah, we'll go the other way on this one. Backing Jameis Winston doesn't seem too appealing and the Cardinals just hung 30 points on the 49ers. Mike LaFleur has Arizona's offense playing well, even if the team lacks the personnel needed to be a contender.
Philadelphia Eagles 30, Los Angeles Rams 27
AI's take: Copilot lauded the Eagles' "physicality" as the factor that would decide a game between "two similarly talented rosters." The chatbot also likes the fact that Philadelphia is the home team in this critical Week 4 matchup.
Our take: The Eagles may be 2-1, but something remains off about their offense. They may not be able to go blow-for-blow with the Rams, especially if Puka Nacua returns in Week 4, so we'll actually back Los Angeles here.
Green Bay Packers 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13
AI's take: The Buccaneers are facing a "difficult ask" in knocking off the Buccaneers with Baker Mayfield (thumb) out of the lineup, in Copilot's estimation. It also likes that Jordan Love is surrounded with "proven weapons," so it's picking the Packers in this spot.
Our take: OK, so Copilot also referred to the Packers' offense as "reliable," which hasn't been the case to open the season. Green Bay has one of the NFL's worst running games and its offensive line was porous enough that the team signed veteran guards Mekhi Becton and Kevin Zeitler ahead of their Week 4 game. The Packers could still beat Jalon Daniels and the Buccaneers, but expect this to be much tighter than Copilot is projecting.
Minnesota Vikings 24, Miami Dolphins 20
AI's take: De'Von Achane's injury is on Copilot's mind entering Week 4. The chatbot said his absence will "hurt Miami's explosiveness." It also expressed concerns about Justin Jefferson missing this game for the Vikings, but it believes Minnesota will pull off the victory.
Our take: The Dolphins have lost all three of their games thus far by at least 14 points and are devoid of skill-position talent. Good pick, Copilot.
Kansas City Chiefs 31, Las Vegas Raiders 24
AI's take: Once again, Copilot is giving the Chiefs "the benefit of the doubt" because of its confidence in Patrick Mahomes. The chatbot expects the Raiders to be "a tougher-than-expected challenge," but it still has the Chiefs coming up on top.
Our take: The Raiders are 3-0, but their opponents have a combined 1-8 record to start the season. The Chiefs will be their first major test, so favoring Mahomes and Andy Reid seems like the sensible choice.
Seattle Seahawks 24, Los Angeles Chargers 20
AI's take: Copilot likes picking teams with great home-field advantages. Seattle qualifies as "one of the tougher road assignments" in the league, so the chatbot is backing the Seahawks to beat a Chargers squad that it says has "talent."
Our take: The Chargers are 0-3, have an abysmal interior offensive line and haven't seen Justin Herbert play well yet this season. The Seahawks were just shredded by the Commanders but should be positioned to bounce back against a struggling squad.
San Francisco 49ers 23, Denver Broncos 20
AI's take: Copilot likes that the 49ers have "offensive balance." It also likes the Broncos' defense, but the chatbot thinks the 49ers will pull off a close win.
Our take: Kyle Shanahan continues to get the most out of his personnel, but this is a tough matchup for a beleaguered 49ers receiving corps and defensive line. Don't be surprised if the Broncos are able to eke out a win in Week 4 because of those injury concerns.
Detroit Lions 35, Carolina Panthers 24
AI's take: Copilot gave the Panthers and Bryce Young credit for how their offense has performed to open the season. That said, it still believes that the Lions' offensive firepower will be "simply too much" for the Panthers to handle.
Our take: The Panthers have struggled badly against the run to open the season, which should allow Jahmyr Gibbs to have a big game. Add in that Carolina will be without its top two cornerbacks, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, and Detroit's offense should have a great day. Nice pick, Copilot!
Atlanta Falcons 24, New Orleans Saints 21
AI's take: Copilot noted it expects this game to "come down to the final possession." That said, it wants to side with the Falcons because it believes Bijan Robinson will be a difference-maker down the stretch.
Our take: The Falcons looked significantly better with Michael Penix Jr. at the helm, but the Saints have good offensive firepower as well. New Orleans will be emotional celebrating the 20-year anniversary of the Superdome re-opening following Hurricane Katrina, so don't be surprised if that boost is enough to put the Saints over the top in this matchup.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL Week 4 predictions by Microsoft Copilot AI for every game
