There’s a way for the SEC crown to come down to Georgia and Alabama, which would be an appropriate way to put a bow on the conference championship game — now set for extinction with the move to a 24-team College Football Playoff.
The Bulldogs head into the home stretch with a one-game lead in the conference standings. Heading into Saturday, Alabama is tied for second place with Kentucky, which it beat, but has to worry about the head-to-head tiebreaker belonging to Tennessee.
This season has shown us that chaos lurks around every corner, though, so getting one final matchup between the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide is far from a sure thing.
CONFERENCE TIEBREAKERS: ACC | Big Ten | SEC
With three weekends left in November, here are the tiebreaker scenarios
in the SEC:
SEC tiebreaker scenarios
Contenders: Georgia (6-1), Alabama (5-2), Kentucky (5-2), Texas (4-2), Tennessee (4-2), Tennessee (4-2).
Georgia is assured a trip to Atlanta by beating Missouri and South Carolina. The Bulldogs can also advance with a loss and a Kentucky loss to one of Florida or Missouri. At this point, Georgia’s a heavy favorite to play for the conference championship.
Alabama’s case is shakier despite being in second place and owning the head-to-head tiebreaker against Kentucky. That’s because of the loss to the Volunteers, who could bump the Crimson Tide.
But the Tide only need a loss by Tennessee and wins against Vanderbilt and Auburn. The Volunteers end the year against Texas A&M, LSU and Vanderbilt, with the Tigers coming on the road.
This much is true: Tennessee and Georgia are the only SEC teams to truly control their own destiny down the stretch.
The math for Kentucky is also simple. The Wildcats will take on Georgia by beating Florida and Kentucky if Alabama loses once.
Texas can also finish 7-2 in the league and finish in a tie for second place if Georgia runs the table. The Longhorns would win a three-way tie with Alabama and Kentucky by having a better record against common conference opponents. (They’d win a two-way tie with the Crimson Tide for the same reason.)
But Texas would lose a three-way tie with Alabama and Tennessee by having a worse conference opponent winning percentage than the Crimson Tide.
How does Georgia miss the SEC championship?
There is a way for Georgia to not reach the championship game, and it’s not too complicated.
Georgia comes up short with one loss if Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee win out. In this scenario, the Tide have a rematch with Kentucky because of conference opponent winning percentage. The same scenario holds true if Texas also wins out, leaving a five-way tie for first place at 7-2 in conference play.
Basically, Kentucky is the tipping point for Georgia’s chances. As long as the Wildcats lose once, there’s no realistic scenario that would keep the Bulldogs from reaching Atlanta.
Is there a way for LSU to reach the SEC championship game?
Yeah, there is, somehow. While LSU has floundered in SEC play, the Tigers could play for the conference championship if the tiebreaker comes down to common opponents faced.
Getting to that point will be the hard part.
LSU needs to win out to finish 6-3 in the SEC, earning wins against Texas, Tennessee and Arkansas along the way. The Tigers then need Alabama, Tennessee and Ole Miss to lose once. Another loss would drop the Rebels to 5-4 in the SEC and out of the race.
This scenario would leave a four-way tie for second place in the SEC. LSU would come in ahead of the Tide and Volunteers by having a 2-0 mark against common opponents. The Tigers would bump the Longhorns because of the head-to-head win.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: SEC football tiebreakers give opportunity for several contenders to reach title game
