There’s a strong likelihood that Ohio State doesn’t play for the Big Ten championship after suffering back-to-back losses to Southern California and Oregon.
This shouldn’t be too surprising. The Buckeyes have only reached the Big Ten championship game once since 2020, losing last year to Indiana.
Prepare yourself for unbeaten UCLA to reach Indianapolis for the first time. The Hoosiers are the current favorite to face the Bruins.
But things could get wild down the stretch in the Big Ten, to the point where there’s a realistic scenario where seven teams are tied for first at 7-2 in conference play.
CONFERENCE TIEBREAKERS: ACC | Big Ten | SEC
There are three weekends left to sort things out. Here are the current tiebreakers and scenarios for the Big
Ten championship game:
Big Ten tiebreaker scenarios
Contenders: UCLA (6-0), Indiana (5-1), Oregon (4-2), Ohio State (4-2), Iowa (4-2), Wisconsin (4-2), USC (4-2).
UCLA is a full game up in the Big Ten standings but won’t be able to breeze into the conference championship game given matchups against Illinois, Michigan and USC.
For the Bruins, the best news is that they can lose once and still reach Lucas Oil Stadium.
In the case of two losses, though, UCLA would come up short in a tie with the Buckeyes and Ducks should each win out. The separator would be a lower conference opponent winning percentage.
While with less room for error, Indiana is also back in the Big Ten championship by beating USC, Washington and Purdue. But one loss would doom the Hoosiers.
To guarantee second place with a 7-2 conference record, Indiana would need everyone else to lose once: Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Wisconsin. The Buckeyes own a head-to-head win. So would USC with a win on Saturday. Iowa and Wisconsin have higher conference opponent winning percentages.
While nothing would be mathematically official, Indiana would be in real trouble with a loss on Saturday to the Trojans.
Oregon still has to play Michigan, Michigan State and Washington. The Ducks advance by winning out while Ohio State and Indiana lose once.
The scenario for Wisconsin begins with wins against Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota. Then, the Badgers would need losses by Indiana, USC, Oregon and Ohio State. In the case of a three-way tie for second place with the Hoosiers and Iowa, Wisconsin would win by having a better record against common opponents.
Iowa has a narrow avenue to Indianapolis and would require some significant chaos to finish second. What the Hawkeyes need is to win out while USC, Oregon and Ohio State lose once and Indiana loses twice.
In essence, Iowa needs to finish tied with only Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes beat the Badgers earlier this season.
And USC is in surprisingly good shape, all things considered. The Trojans do need to win out, which won’t be easy with the Hoosiers and Bruins still to come. But at 7-2, USC would have a big edge in common opponent winning percentage, currently at 56.8%, and would also have head-to-head tiebreakers with the Hoosiers and Buckeyes.
How does Ohio State reach the Big Ten championship game?
For all the handwringing and concern over the Buckeyes midseason collapse, there’s a pretty easy way for them to reach Indianapolis.
First, OSU needs to win out against Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan. Next, Indiana has to lose to USC. The Trojans then have to lose to UCLA.
Should the Buckeyes be tied at 7-2 with Oregon, Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa, they’d get the nod because of a higher conference opponent winning percentage.
But one tweak would ruin things for OSU. If Indiana beats USC but then loses to Washington, Oregon would have the same conference opponent winning percentage as the Buckeyes but would take the tiebreaker because of a head-to-head win.
There is also a scenario where seven teams finish 7-2 in the Big Ten and in a tie for first place. What that would take: USC beats Indiana, UCLA twice and Ohio State, Oregon, Wisconsin and Iowa win out.
In this scenario, the Buckeyes would face the Trojans.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Big Ten football tiebreakers: How Ohio State and others can make title game
