The midterms will change Washington. They already have.
Even before the votes are counted, the 2026 campaign has focused grievances against President Donald Trump, shuffled the political map, opened a door for democratic socialists, fueled opposition to data centers, let 2028 presidential hopefuls test the waters and demonstrated the record-setting reach of billionaires' bucks.
Straight ahead is the main event: Who wins?
"You know, a midterm is usually not that exciting," Trump told reporters as he left Joint Base Andrews for his final campaign swing to Texas. "This has become very exciting."
The results are expected to reset power in the nation's capital, giving Democrats control of the House of Representatives, and with that the ability to pass
legislation, convene hearings, issue subpoenas and impeach.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report as of Nov. 1 rated 222 House districts as favoring Democratic candidates, more than enough to claim the 218-seat majority. If a fair share of the 18 contests that remain too close to call swing the Democrats' way, it could rival the solid 235-seat majority they gained in the midterms during Trump's first term, in 2018.
Even the president declined to dispute what just about every credible forecaster predicts will be the loss of the House and setbacks in the Senate. "I hope that won't be the case but if it is, it's happened before with many presidents," he shrugged. "You have a strong veto and you end up working it out."
Not always, perhaps. The loss of House control eight years ago was followed by Trump's double impeachment and his defeat for reelection in 2020.
Up for grabs: the Senate
To win control of the Senate, Democrats must score a net gain of four seats, an especially high bar given an unfriendly map of the states that happen to hold Senate races this year.
One possible scenario: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed could hold the Democratic seat in Michigan, now rated a toss-up against Mike Rogers, and Democrats could flip a GOP-held seat in North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper is favored over Michael Whatley.
Then they would need to swing three other seats now held by Republicans. Among the other half-dozen tossup races, only Maine is in a state that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential race. The others − Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas − all went by double-digits to Trump.
In the campaign's final stretch, another ruby red state has become unexpectedly competitive. South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham is neck-and-neck in late polls with Democrat Annie Andrews. A GOP defeat would be personal for Trump, who hand-picked Graham to succeed her late brother, Lindsey Graham.
The unexpected places with competitive races have fueled speculation about shifts in the nation's political map. Democratic Senate candidates in red-leaning Georgia and North Carolina are now in more commanding positions than in blue-leaning Minnesota and New Hampshire, for instance.
Will that prove to be just a midterm moment or a more lasting trend?
A demand for change. Again
Dissatisfaction with those in charge has been the default of America's dyspeptic politics for a decade. Since 2016, every presidential and midterm election has realigned power in Washington in one way or another.
Trump was elected to succeed a Democratic president in 2016, was ousted by Joe Biden in 2020, then won the White House back in 2024 against Kamala Harris. On Capitol Hill, Democrats lost control of the House in 2016, regained it in 2018, lost it again in 2022 and now are poised to win it back again. Republicans lost control of the Senate in 2020 then regained it in 2024.
Not since the Gilded Age, from 1884 to 1892, has the White House swung between two parties in three straight elections.
That impatience with the status quo could pose a challenge for Democrats who are feeling newly empowered.
Discontent with the establishment has boosted candidates from New York to California backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, including Florida Senate candidate Angie Nixon. “Trust me on this," Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders declared at a rally with Nixon in Tallahassee. "After Angie wins, this is going to be a spark that is going to ignite the entire country."
Some of the DSA-supported House candidates have refused to commit to backing Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York for speaker, demanding key progressive policies like Medicare for All on the Democrats' agenda. That issue and others, including cutting U.S. aid to Israel, could put them at odds with centrist members elected in purple or even red districts.
The conflagration between El-Sayed and the Democratic primary opponent he defeated, Rep. Haley Stevens, could be an omen of tensions ahead. She ended up issuing a last-minute endorsement Nov. 1 of Rogers, the Republican.
Jeffries has outlined a 100-days agenda that includes restoring Republican cuts in nutrition aid and Medicaid and Affordable Care Act subsidies. He says Democrats will vote to reverse Trump's tariffs and restrict the war with Iran.
But while a new Democratic House majority could set up a political contrast with the White House, it would be less able to actually enact signature legislation, given the hurdles of the Senate filibuster and the presidential veto.
His most important job is "figuring out what unites us," Jeffries told USA TODAY. Rep. Troy Carter of Louisiana, a leader of the Congressional Black Caucus, disputed skeptics who predict a drama of Democratic disorder. "I told them, 'Put your popcorn away. Put it away for another day.'"
Or perhaps bring it out for the action on Election Night.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Midterm upheaval: The campaign is reshaping politics for Trump, Dems
