It’s Red River, and Arch Manning’s Heisman hopes are up a creek.
His chances for college football’s top award are underwater.
Choose your metaphor.
Manning joined Notre Dame’s CJ Carr as preseason co-frontrunners for the Heisman.
Manning now swims upstream against a furious current.
“I don’t even think he’s in the conversation,” one Heisman voter told me, when I asked how close Manning would be to this voter’s ballot, one-third of the way through the season.
The voter added Manning isn’t among the top five or six SEC quarterbacks, let alone the top five or six Heisman candidates.
Heisman electors get a first-,
second- and third-place vote.
I asked 14 Heisman voters whom they’d vote for through this point in the season. None of the electors I polled included Manning in their three-man pecking order. When I asked how close Manning would be to their top three, several voters used some version of the phrase, not particularly close.
Electors who responded to my query were granted anonymity to freely discuss their current pecking order and rationale. The Heisman Trust's rules ask electors to keep votes confidential until after the award announcement.
While Manning recedes from the Heisman limelight, my polling showed one-time frontrunner Carr has a lot of work to do, too, despite a 13-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for No. 3 Notre Dame.
Carr’s catch-up opportunities will come in showcase games against BYU and Miami.
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has established himself as the clear favorite, based on my polling.
Arch Manning is ‘suitable' so far, but not elite
I’m a Heisman elector. I did not include my own pecking order within my polling, but suffice it to say not particularly close would accurately describe my own perspective about Manning and the Heisman race.
It’s not that Manning has played poorly. He’s been average to above average, with occasional moments of brilliance.
Within a conference waist-deep with standout quarterbacks, Manning ranks 10th in quarterback efficiency, 12th in completion percentage, and his 7-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio fades into the background.
Four SEC quarterbacks — Alabama’s Keelon Russell, Mississippi’s Trinidad Chambliss, Georgia’s Gunner Stockton and Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor — gained top-three mention from at least one voter I polled, while Manning got shut out.
One voter described Manning as being “a suitable quarterback,” but one who’s not currently in serious contention for a spot on this voter’s ballot.
“He may be a winner,” this voter said, “but he’s not overly impressive as an individual elite player.”
Hundreds of media members vote for the award. Past award winners each get a vote, too.
So, the sample size I collected represents a sliver of the voters to whom a ballot is awarded, but the responses I received nonetheless paint a picture of a quarterback with a famous surname who went from being a Heisman frontrunner to an underdog in a month’s time.
“I think he's closer to No. 10 than No. 3,” one Heisman voter told me.
Said another: “Right now, I would have him as a fringe top-10 candidate.”
Is Arch Manning even best Heisman candidate on Texas roster?
Pecking orders might shift drastically, of course, throughout the next two months.
No. 1 Texas will play eight more games, plus a potential appearance in the SEC Championship, before Heisman electors cast ballots in December.
“If he has a consistent and strong rest of the season against great teams, that isn’t to say he can’t finish in my top three,” one voter said, “but I’ll be honest to say he hasn’t given me that WOW yet when I think of Heisman voting.”
Texas’ schedule will give Manning multiple opportunities for wow moments. After this weekend’s rivalry game against Oklahoma, Texas will play five straight games against SEC opponents that are currently ranked. That’s the type of stretch that could revive a quarterback’s Heisman hopes — or bury them.
“At this point, I wouldn’t even have him on the All-SEC team,” one voter said of Manning. “That said, his best shot is for Texas to stay at No. 1. A lot of voters always want to vote for the best player on the best team.”
That raises another question. Will Manning emerge as the best candidate within his own locker room? Not everybody thinks so.
As one voter put it, “I’m not sold that Arch is the best player on his own team.”
Another said this: “Texas' defense, not its offense, is what seems to be carrying the team.”
To that point, Longhorns defensive end Colin Simmons earned a second-place nod from one of the voters I polled, while Manning got shut out.
Nine players gained top-three mention from at least one voter during my polling of 14 voters. Seven of those nine are quarterbacks. None is named Manning. Ohio State’s Smith and Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney were the non-quarterbacks to curry favor.
Arch Manning becomes Heisman longshot. Jeremiah Smith is favorite
Throughout the College Football Playoff era, eight of the 12 Heisman winners played for teams that made either the four- or 12-team playoff.
Texas rattling off wins amid a rugged schedule could buoy Manning, even if he doesn’t match other quarterbacks’ gaudy stats.
Heisman voters often gravitate to quarterbacks. Twenty-one of the 26 Heisman winners during the 21st century played quarterback.
And yet every so often, a player at a different position is so sensational, so clearly the best player in the country, that he wins the award while the top quarterbacks must settle for finalist status.
That possibility is emerging this season. As Smith told reporters after a 206-yard receiving performance against Iowa last weekend, “I'm the best player in the country.”
Most of the electors I polled agreed with his assessment. Smith was the only player who appeared in the top three of every voter I polled.
He logged the No. 1 spot for 12 voters, and No. 2 for two others.
Miami quarterback Darian Mensah and Chambliss of Ole Miss were the other players to gain first-place mention.
In my polling, Mensah established himself as the current second fiddle to Smith, earning mention from 10 of 14 voters.
Russell of Alabama checked in third, on the heels of his head-turning performance in a road win at Mississippi State. Russell will have another chance to gain momentum this weekend when No. 6 Alabama hosts No. 2 Georgia.
Manning enjoys 100% name recognition, but even grandfather Archie never finished higher than third in Heisman voting. Uncle Eli placed third, too, and uncle Peyton placed second to Charles Woodson.
The Mannings win a lot, but they don’t win Heismans.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Listen to his podcast, "College Football Unfiltered." Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why Heisman voters say Arch Manning is miles away from their ballot
