Odds for Social Security reform may have dimmed last week after one of the program's biggest champions lost his primary, but advocates say this only highlights the importance of November's midterm elections.
Rep. John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, 78, who has served in Congress for nearly three decades, was ousted in a primary election by former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin.
Larson sits on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee and is ranking member of the Social Security Subcommittee. In July, he and Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Connecticut, introduced the Social Security 2100 Act to increase Social Security benefits by eliminating the wage cap for payroll taxes and by adding a tax on investment income for taxpayers making over $400,000. Currently,
payroll tax exempts annual income above $184,500.
Larson's only one member of Congress and in the House, but he's been a leading voice for Social Security reform, analysts say. Still, every senator elected in November's midterms will be important because they'll be part of the class that either lets Social Security's trust fund run dry in 2032 or reform the program, analysts say. Senators elected in November will serve through early 2033, just after the projected late-2032 Social Security depletion date. House leaders elected in this year have terms that end in 2029.
"Larson's a champion without parallel, but people have all the power," said Alex Lawson, executive director of Social Security Works, a nonprofit, political advocacy group for protecting and expanding Social Security. "Every single race will see Social Security as an issue. It will be a top priority everywhere, especially in the general election as we go forward."
If the trust fund that supplements incoming payroll taxes to pay monthly Social Security benefits is depleted, recipients would face an immediate across-the-board 22% benefits cut, the latest Board of Trustees report on Social Security said. On average, beneficiaries would lose about $500 a month, the nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Budget estimates.
How did Bronin win?
Among the things Bronin, 47, ran on was the need for generational change in politics with his website declaring "We need a new direction — for the Democratic party and, most importantly, for our country."
After years of inflation, intermittent government shutdowns and feeling like it's increasingly difficult to get ahead, many Americans are seeking change, polls show. More than half (53%) of the 2,287Americans surveyed by CBS News/YouGov from Aug 12-14 said they thought more young people in office would make things better. Three-quarters of Democrats felt that way, data show.
Will Social Security be a victim of generational changes?
Social Security is highly valued by Americans of all ages, though less by younger adults, according to a survey by AARP, a nonprofit, nonpartisan advocacy for the 125 million Americans age 50-plus.
"Young people love Social Security," Lawson said. "There's no worry for me about that."
What worries him more are the ultra-wealthy who may pour money into campaigns to prevent having to pay payroll taxes "on all their income like the vast majority of Americans," he said. They can use their money to "confuse people for a while, but people always win."
Among the nearly 1,100 adults polled by AARP, 95% of those age 64 or more said Social Security was important to Americans and 92% of Americans 50 years or more said the same. Just less than three of four (73%) ages 18-49 said so.
Still, younger Americans may not see Social Security as a top issue in November, some analysts said.
"Over time, the younger generation is less attached to the idea that they will depend on Social Security," said Patricia Crouse, political science professor at the University of New Haven. "And there are so many other important issues (to them). A lot of them don't support the war in Iran and worry about high gas prices, the affordability crisis. Those are things they're thinking about. I see it in my own students - 'What does graduation mean for me? Will I get a job?' - A lot of them are still living with their parents and dealing with student loans."
All those issues will likely keep younger Americans from prioritizing Social Security, something decades away for them and that they're not even sure will be there when they retire, analysts said.
When will Social Security get its fix?
"It'll be so hard to push Social Security issues on the political agenda because there's no space for it," said Philip Diehl, former U.S. mint director during the Clinton administration and president of precious metal broker U.S. Money Reserve.
He and Crouse don't see Social Security getting any serious consideration until the beginning of 2029, just a few short years before the program's trust fund is forecast to be depleted.
Socal Security may not be a headline issue in November, "but it has to be on the agenda to start talking about it so it'll be there in two years," Diehl said. "We'll have a better idea of what that Congress (to work on Social Security) looks like after midterms but who knows what happens after that. The U.S. Senate is entering a crucial time."
Americans need to know who the pro-Social Security candidates are going into these midterms and the next few years, he said.
And because everyone's waited so long to address Social Security, they'll all "have to join hands and jump together," Diehl said. "Everyone will have to take a hit, especially if the employment base is significantly less because of artificial intelligence."
Medora Lee is a money, markets and personal finance reporter at USA TODAY. You can reach her at mjlee@usatoday.com and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday morning.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What a Social Security champion's primary loss spells for the program
