It's strange that Vice President JD Vance, a MAGA Republican, is stopping in South Texas on Sept. 30 to headline a midterm rally.
President Donald Trump swept most South Texas counties in the 2024 election.
Vance's visit, along with the enormous sums the Democratic and Republican parties are spending on a U.S. Senate race, raises a question: How tight is that race, really?
It's a shame so much money is being spent here, and Vance shouldn't need to come shore up the state for Republicans.
'This is the race to watch on election night 2026'
In the last presidential election, Trump flipped at least two Texas counties that had been Democratic strongholds. Yet money keeps pouring into the 2026 race for the U.S. Senate, much of it from conservative super political action committees.
Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico's campaign alone had spent nearly $50 million on general election advertising by mid-September.
As of Sept. 25, CBS News reports, super PACs supporting Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton had spent or reserved more than $155 million for TV and digital ads in the race.
The advertising firm AdImpact predicts a whopping $440 million could be spent on the contest between Talarico and Paxton by Nov. 3. That's twice what was spent in 2024, when Republican Sen. Ted Cruz beat then-Rep. Colin Allred, a Democrat.
"The race is expensive because of the availability and ease of raising money," Brian Smith, a political science professor at St. Edward's University in Austin, told me. Super PACs let outside groups spend far beyond what campaigns can raise on their own, and contribution limits rise every cycle, he said: "It has never been easier to donate and solicit funding."
Smith chalks much of it up to dissatisfaction with "Donald Trump, inflation since COVID, and the corruption and baggage of Ken Paxton."
Paxton's baggage is considerable. The state attorney general was indicted on state securities fraud charges, which were dropped in 2024 after he agreed to a pretrial intervention deal, and he was impeached by the Texas House before the Texas Senate acquitted him following a long, costly trial.
In 2025, Texas Sen. Angela Paxton, his wife of 38 years, filed for divorce – though she recently urged Republican women to back GOP candidates even if they have reservations about them. In a Texas Pulse poll released Aug. 7, 55% of likely voters said Paxton is corrupt.
Republicans are clearly betting that the vice president pounding the pavement, plus a flood of campaign ad money, will get conservative Texans to the polls for Paxton, even in a midterm election.
"Simply put," Smith said, "this is the race to watch on election night 2026."
Can millions of dollars turn into millions of votes?
Polls continue to show Talarico ahead of Paxton, and RealClearPolitics now rates the race a toss-up rather than leaning Republican.
Even so, polling is more art than science, and results can swing with sampling and low response rates. It's possible that the extraordinary campaign spending is working, and that Vance is making a quick stop to rally any conservatives rattled by what they're seeing.
Having lived in Texas through several elections, I've watched predictions and reality part ways again and again. Every midterm and presidential election, the polls and the mainstream media call Texas' statewide races "tight."
Sometimes Democrats are even predicted to win. But they don't.
On X, Cruz posted an old screenshot of Allred claiming polls had him up 1 point and ready to win. "Don't trust every poll you see. I won by 9 points," the Republican senator wrote Sept. 28, urging Texans to vote.
"The Democrats are hoping that the polls showing Talarico ahead are as constant as gravity," Smith said. Republicans, he added, are hoping that the samples miss undecided Republicans and oversample Democrats.
An Economist/YouGov poll shows 62% of Americans disapprove of Trump's job performance. But CNN analyst Harry Enten has reported "no real decline" in Trump's support among MAGA Republicans, and Texas has a lot of them.
Vance's closeness to Trump, and his rally, could help the Republican Senate candidate. But it's too bad Republicans have to sink millions into a conservative stronghold at all. That's the price of nominating Ken Paxton.
Nicole Russell is an opinion columnist with USA TODAY. She lives in Texas with her four kids. Sign up for her newsletter, The Right Track, and get it delivered to your inbox.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Vance shouldn't have to rescue Paxton in ruby red Texas | Opinion
