The number of people developing dementia each year worldwide is expected to more than double by 2050, with women and people in lower-income countries facing higher rates, according to new research.
An estimated 11.4 million people developed dementia in 2023. By 2050, that number is projected to reach 24.7 million new cases annually, researchers reported Oct. 12 in the journal JAMA Neurology.
The findings highlight the growing need for dementia prevention, diagnosis and care as populations age. Researchers say countries with fewer health care resources could face particular challenges meeting that demand.
“This is not a future problem,” Dr. Liron Sinvani, director of research and innovation at the Northwell Institute for Healthy Aging in New York,
told U.S. News & World Report. “It's an accelerating epidemic crisis that demands immediate attention.”
How many people will develop dementia by 2050?
Researchers led by the University of New South Wales Sydney's Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing analyzed data from 38,418 people across 22 studies spanning 18 countries and territories on six continents.
Researchers tracked participants over time and found that 3,001 developed dementia. The researchers used the data to estimate how frequently new cases occur across different populations.
Dementia cases are expected to rise largely because the global population is aging. The risk of developing dementia increases with age, Sinvani told U.S. News & World Report.
Dementia already affects more than 57 million people worldwide. Previous research has projected that the total could reach about 150 million by 2050.
Why are women at higher risk?
The study found that women had a higher rate of new dementia cases than men, even after researchers accounted for age, with 10.6 cases per 1,000 people, compared with 8.6 cases among men.
The study did not establish why the difference exists. Researchers said possible contributing factors include the higher frequency of Alzheimer's disease among women, hormonal changes associated with menopause and metabolic factors affecting heart health.
Which countries face the greatest increase?
New dementia cases were substantially more common in low- and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, the study found.
The rate of new dementia cases was 13.6 per 1,000 people in low- and middle-income countries, compared with 8.3 per 1,000 people in high-income countries.
Researchers cautioned that the study did not determine the reasons for this disparity. However, they warned that countries with fewer resources for prevention, diagnosis and caregiving could struggle to meet growing needs.
Can dementia risk be reduced?
Prevention efforts could help lessen the future burden of dementia, Sinvani told U.S. News.
He said 14 established, modifiable risk factors account for nearly half of dementia cases. These include factors such as physical inactivity, obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes, smoking and social isolation.
Study co-author Henry Brodaty, co-director of the Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing, said health systems must address dementia risk before people develop the condition, while improving diagnosis, treatment and care.
“Population aging means we cannot simply wait for people to develop dementia and then respond,” Brodaty said.
Reporter Anthony Thompson can be reached at ajthompson@usatodayco.com, or on X @athompsonUSAT.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Dementia cases to double by 2050. Here's why
