Texas voters are split on theU.S. Senate race heading into early voting, with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding a narrow edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll
shows Paxton trailing Talarico, 47% to 50%, within the poll’s 3.3-point margin of error, with 1% of voters preferring Libertarian Ted Brown and 2% preferring an unspecified “someone else.”It's the latest in a string of October polls showing the race tightening in a state that last elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 1988.
Here's what the poll says and how it compares to other October polls.
James Talarico, Ken Paxton within Texas Senate poll's margin of error
The Texas Politics Project poll was conducted Sept. 25 to Oct. 5, with trial ballot results presented among a sample
of 861 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
The poll found that both candidates are holding their partisan bases: 92% of Republican likely voters picked Paxton, and 98% of Democrats picked Talarico. Among those who recalled voting for Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, 98% back Talarico. Among 2024 President Donald Trump voters, 89% back Paxton.
Trump has made several Texas campaign stops for Paxton in recent weeks, including Oct. 1 in Denton and Oct. 7 in San Antonio.
Talarico’s favorability ratings remain strong among Democratic partisans, according to the poll's analysis, with 92% viewing him favorably and 1% unfavorably, compared with Paxton’s among his Republican base, with 69% viewing him favorably and 15% unfavorably.
The poll also looked at how independents are breaking and found that independent likely voters prefer Talarico over Paxton, 69% to 11%.
The poll also broke out support by key demographic groups:
- Latinos: Talarico 54%, Paxton 41%
- Urban: Talarico 54%, Paxton 41%
- Suburbs: Talarico 54%, Paxton 44%
- Rural: Talarico 30%, Paxton 66%
- Women: Talarico 56%, Paxton 40%
- Men: Talarico 42%, Paxton 54%
Recent Texas U.S. Senate race polls
Here's what other October polls have shown. Early voting begins Oct. 19:
- ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
- UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%.
- YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
- The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%.
- Fox News(Oct. 1) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New Texas Senate poll shows where the race stands before early voting
