They say you can tell a lot about a person by their dreams, so it's telling that every election the Democratic Party and the mainstream media fantasize about turning Texas blue.
From local and national Democratic officials to newspapers, magazines and cable networks, the buzz ahead of every midterm and presidential election for years has been the same: This is the year Texas finally elects a statewide Democrat. This year's races are no exception – the U.S. Senate contest between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, and the governor's race between incumbent Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
How tight are Abbott and Paxton's races?
Abbott is faring well in the run-up to this election. Polymarket, a prediction betting site that's often accurate,
puts his odds of beating Hinojosa at 83%. Even the RealClearPolitics polling average has Abbott up by 4 percentage points. But that hasn't stopped Democrats and legacy news outlets from pushing an entirely different narrative.
"Greg Abbott’s Chances of Losing Texas Governor Race as Paxton Wins Runoff," a Newsweek headline reads. The New York Times is even bolder, profiling Hinojosa under the headline "Against the Odds, This Democrat in Texas Is Giving Greg Abbott a Fight."
I had to chuckle at the implication that a Democrat even challenging a Republican incumbent was performing a noble deed. A local news source cited a tight poll and called the race "deadlocked.” A CBS News headline breathlessly relays that Hinojosa is closing the gap in the governor's race, now within 5 points.
Abbott isn't a perfect governor. I wish he'd cut property taxes further and make significant changes to Texas' education programs. His approval rating sits at about 48%, same as his disapproval rating. He has presided over incredible economic growth and some property tax cuts.
Several major companies − such as Chevron, Oracle and Tesla – have moved to Texas, which remains one of the top places Americans move to thanks to no income tax and its affordable cost of living, a direct result of embracing conservative values.
Texans are unlikely to choose a Democrat who would upend that way of life.
The U.S. Senate race has generated even more hype, although this race is objectively tighter.
"Texas is red, California blue – but for how much longer? A Lone Star toss-up will tell," a Los Angeles Times headline reads.
"Paxton and Talarico are in a cage match for a Senate seat," says KERA News, NPR's North Texas affiliate.
Even the conservative American Enterprise Institute asked in a podcast whether Talarico could turn Texas blue.
These are all fantasies, fueled and clouded by the mere possibility of a Democrat winning statewide office in Texas, one of America's foremost conservative strongholds.
Democrats care more about winning than ideas
This has been a theme in Texas for as long as I've lived here – over eight years now – and likely long before. In 2024, Democrats salivated over the mere possibility that Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, a former pro-football player, would best Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Texas-based publications and national news outlets called the race tight.
Cruz won handily with over 53% of the vote.
The same thing happened with Democrat Beto O'Rourke, a man the party embraced as if he were the next Barack Obama. O'Rourke ran for the U.S. Senate against Cruz in 2018 and lost. Despite that, Vanity Fair featured him on its cover in April 2019, prepping America for a presidential bid, gushing over how Texan he was but not that kind of conservative, Christian Texan. A cool, liberal Texan who hates guns.
O'Rourke dropped out of the presidential race that November, ran against Gov. Abbott in 2022 and lost again, this time by more than 10 points.
The Democratic Party and mainstream media’s desire to turn Texas blue is strange given the numbers. Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in Texas since 1994.
President Donald Trump isn't on the ballot for November, of course, and he's weakened the Republican Party. But in 2024, Trump won Starr County, the first time a Republican presidential nominee had won it in 132 years. He also flipped Webb County, which voted Republican for the first time since 1912.
The obsession with turning Texas blue, even as the party grows weaker, reveals that Democrats care more about power than about ideas voters actually want. They care more about winning Texas, about taking it from conservatives, than about representing Texans' values.
I'm not saying the statewide races won't be tight. The Paxton-Talarico race could be, though for different reasons: Paxton's a weak candidate, and it's a midterm election with a Republican president. Recall that 2024 polls had Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat, but Trump won Texas by a landslide.
But I can't see Texas turning blue any more than I can see Democrats finding a liberal candidate Texans will actually get behind. They can keep obsessing over flipping Texas all they want, but their fantasies reveal their skewed values.
And their nightmares – losing yet again – are the stuff our dreams are made of.
Nicole Russell is an opinion columnist with USA TODAY. She lives in Texas with her four kids. Sign up for her newsletter, The Right Track, and get it delivered to your inbox.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Democrats dream of a blue Texas. It's still just a fantasy. | Opinion
