Maybe it’s just one week, right? A fortunate, fabulous free-for-all gift that reminds us of college football’s uncertain majesty.
Or maybe it’s a weeding out of the weak.
Georgia and Alabama? Elite. Ohio State? Elite — even with the blown 20-point lead in Austin.
Everyone else? Mid.
The perfect analogy for the midseason run of the USA TODAY Sports Playoff Predictor. We’re halfway through the season, and there are two distinctly different levels: teams that are a lock to reach the College Football Playoff semifinals ― and everyone else.
Who needs 24 teams when four will do just fine, thank you. The inevitable has arrived in the race for the CFP.
Don't say you haven't been warned.
“And another weak in the SEC,” said Georgia coach Kirby Smart. “Because
humility is a week away.”
Kirby, babe, we get the SEC propaganda. But no one’s buying it.
Not after a week in which the contenders clearly separated from the pretenders all over college football. It was chaotic — and in a strangely therapeutic way, cathartic.
It’s very clear where the CFP is headed, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. Who among us wouldn’t take two more games between Georgia and Alabama in the SEC championship game and CFP?
Who among us can’t wait to see if Georgia or Alabama can figure out how to stop Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith? Go ahead, throw Notre Dame into the mix. Miami, too.
But until further notice or until proven differently (by Indiana), the elite of the game stops at those five teams. And Notre Dame and Miami are still iffy because they haven’t been tested, and won’t be until they play next month in South Bend.
The projected CFP field
1. Georgia: Physical, punishing, athletic. Indomitable will to win. And a fifth-year senior quarterback who doesn’t make mistakes. Next: vs. Auburn.
2. Alabama: For the first time since Kalen DeBoer arrived in Tuscaloosa, there’s little doubt he has a team that can beat anyone. Next: at Tennessee.
3. Ohio State: The Iowa defense was a sturdy test. Indiana’s defense will be the most difficult of the regular season. Next: at Indiana.
4. Notre Dame: An absolutely laughable schedule got easier with injury to BYU star tailback LJ Martin. Wake us when it's November. Next at BYU.
5. Miami: It’s one thing to not be stressed. It’s a more difficult reality to not know how your team will react when stressed for the first time. Next: vs. Florida State.
6. Indiana: There are any number of concerns after the comeback victory over Nebraska. Top of the list: where’s the run game that protected everything in 2025? Next: vs. Ohio State.
7. Texas: The Ohio State comeback and ugly Tennessee win overshadowed an obvious problem: a clunky, awkward offense with a struggling line. Next: vs. Florida.
8. UCLA: They’re tough, they’re smart and they don’t self-implode in the pressure moments. And the schedule is fortunate. Hello, Indiana, circa 2024. Next: vs. Wisconsin.
9. Ole Miss: Maybe the Florida loss really was a glitch. We’re about to find out over the next month of a brutal schedule. Next: Missouri.
10. Missouri: Still not sure what Missouri is with two biggest wins against teams (Florida, Texas A&M) currently falling apart. Though Tigers had something to do with it. Next: at Ole Miss.
11. Utah: Somebody from the underwhelming Big 12 has to make it. Why not the Utes this week? Next: at Colorado.
12. Boise State: Broncos essentially down to one-game season vs. Oregon State in mid-November. Provided someone gets unbeaten JMU at some point. Next: Bye.
College Football Playoff first-round byes
Georgia
Alabama
Ohio State
Notre Dame
College Football Playoff first-round matchups
Boise State (12) at Miami (5)
Utah (11) at Indiana (6)
Missouri (10) at Texas (7)
Ole Miss (9) at UCLA (8)
Quarterfinals
Georgia (1) vs. Ole Miss-UCLA winner
Alabama (2) vs. Missouri-Texas winner
Ohio State (3) vs. Utah-Indiana winner
Notre Dame (4) vs. Boise State-Miami winner
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB. Listen to him daily, from 12-2 p.m., on 1010XL-Jacksonville.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Playoff Predictor: Georgia, Alabama lead inevitable SEC domination of CFP field
