A fresh round of polling is flashing new warning signs for President Donald Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.
With control of Congress on the line, surveys released this week
found Trump's approval rating near second-term lows while Democratic voters reported significantly greater enthusiasm about voting in November. The results come as Republicans confront softening support within Trump's coalition and growing pressure in battleground races.The numbers are drawing comparisons to 2018, shortly before Republicans lost a sizable margin of support.
Pollster David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center, noted, "The job approval in October of 2018 was 44%, and he lost 41 House seats," Paleologos said.
"Today his approval rating is significantly lower."
Democratic enthusiasm rises as Trump's base cools
One of the clearest warning signs for Republicans came from a Reuters/Ipsos survey released this week.
The poll found that only 30% of voters who backed Trump in 2024 described themselves as "very enthusiastic" about voting in the midterms, compared with 48% of voters who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris.
The survey also suggests many motivated voters are driven more by opposition to Trump than support for him. Among highly enthusiastic voters, 62% said they were eager to vote against the president, while 36% said they were excited to support him.
Pew Research Center survey also pointed to erosion within Trump's own coalition. The poll found that 67% of his 2024 voters approve of his job performance, down 28 percentage points from the start of his second term.
The survey also found growing unease among Republicans. Just 39% said they were satisfied with the direction of the country, down from 65% at the start of Trump's term and the lowest level recorded during his second presidency.
Republicans face difficult choices
As Election Day nears, some analysts are watching where Republicans choose to spend their money.
Paleologos said party leaders may soon be forced to focus resources on their most competitive races.
"What you're going to see in the next seven to 10 days is the big money, the Republican National Committee, starting to pull money out of states," Paleologos said. "That's going to be a culture shock for some of these Republican Senate nominees."
There are already signs of shifting priorities. According to Associated Press reporting, Republicans recently moved money from North Carolina's Senate race to Kansas as the fight for Senate control enters its final weeks.
The shift comes as polling has tightened Republicans' path in both states. An East Carolina University survey found former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by seven points, while a YouGov poll showed Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall by three points in Kansas.
Another rough week of polling for Trump
Those concerns come amid another rough week of polling for the president.
Pew's survey released Oct. 8 found that only three in 10 Americans approve of Trump's job performance, marking a new second-term low and leaving him just one point above his lowest rating at the end of his first term.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released earlier in the week found Trump's approval rating at 32% for a second consecutive week, matching the lowest level the pollster has recorded for him across both of his terms in office.
What polling averages show
Individual surveys vary, but major polling averages point to the same conclusion: Trump remains deeply underwater with voters heading into the final weeks before the midterms.
As of Oct. 9, averages from RealClearPolitics, The New York Times and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin all showed Trump's approval rating in the high 30s and his disapproval rating around 60%.
While those averages are higher than some recent polls, they underscore the challenge Republicans face as they try to hold Congress in a political environment where more Americans disapprove than approve of the president's performance.
Contributors: Terry Moseley, USA TODAY
Fernando Cervantes Jr. is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Reach him at fernando.cervantes@usatodayco.com and follow him on X @fern_cerv_.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New polls raise alarms for Trump, Republicans
