With less than seven weeks until the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Democrats are leading in polls. But in a politically polarized country with mostly gerrymandered congressional districts, a handful of contests will determine whether Democrats can actually win control of the House of Representatives.
The toss-up races across the country include traditional swing districts, a campaign from a former NFL kicker, a congressman back from a four-month mystery disappearance and family drama on Capitol Hill.
“I would never say something is certain in American politics, but you know the Democrats have a very good chance of winning the [House] majority in November,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center
for Politics, told USA TODAY.
Congress’ lower chamber is made up of 435 voting members, so 218 is the magic number for winning a majority, which allows a party to pick leadership and control the legislative agenda. All 435 House seats are up for election. Kondik projected in a Sept. 16 article that at least 210 races are safely or leaning Democrat, at least 203 are safely or leaning Republican and only 22 races are toss-ups.
Trump’s low approval rating helps Democrats
President Donald Trump’s low approval rating – sitting in the low 30-percentage-point range in numerous polls – could give Democrats an edge.
“The president’s party nearly always loses seats in the House in the midterm elections, and the size of the loss is correlated with the president’s approval rating,” David Hopkins, professor of political science at Boston College, told USA TODAY.
Republicans’ advantages at this point include their major monetary lead against Democrats, with the MAGA Inc. PAC alone sitting on at least $400 million. Another advantage came from the GOP's recent push to redraw boundaries in their favor in states including Texas and Florida, which Democrats were able to only partially offset in states such as California.
“Republicans should gain seats through redistricting, although it may only be a very small number,” Kondik said,
Recent polling suggests that Democrats currently have a lead of between 7 and 10 percentage points.
Political scientists and analysts told USA TODAY that they estimate Democrats need to win the national popular vote by three or four points to flip the House, due to congressional maps in Republican-controlled states that have given the GOP an advantage. David Wasserman of Cook Political Report told USA TODAY that even if Democrats do win by that much, Republicans could retain control if they overperform in key races.
That's why these races are the crucial ones to follow.
Northeast toss-ups
With Republican-held swing districts and a GOP representative who went missing from Capitol Hill for months, the Northeast corridor has some prime pickup opportunities for Democrats.
In New York’s 17th Congressional District, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is defending his seat against Democratic Army veteran Cait Conley. Lawler, a moderate who represents the suburban Hudson Valley north of New York City, hosted a campaign rally with Trump in May, despite representing one of the most Democratic-leaning districts held by a Republican.
Lawler also attended the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where he distanced himself from Trump in a speech, saying, “The truth is that the president and I don’t always agree, and that’s OK.”
The mystery of the missing representative from New Jersey from March to June came to a close when Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. said he was hospitalized with depression.
Now, he’s defending his seat in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District after the four-month hiatus that put his seat in the spotlight, and which polling indicates he may lose. Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a Navy veteran, hopes to oust him. The district in North Jersey's affluent New York City suburbs has been highly competitive in recent years: Kean flipped the district from Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski in 2022, by only 2.8 points, in a comeback after Kean lost to Malinowski in 2020 by 1.2 points.
Pennsylvania has three races to watch in their 7th, 8th and 10th Congressional Districts, in which Kondik predicted in an article that Democrats “should be able to make at least some headway."
In the 7th district, incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie hopes to keep his seat representing the eastern Pennsylvania district that includes Allentown, but Democrat Bob Brooks, president of the state’s Professional Fire Fighters Association, hopes to flip the seat blue. Mackenzie flipped it red in 2024, ousting a Democratic incumbent.
Eighth district Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan and 10th District Republican Rep. Scott Perry in the northeast and south-central parts of the state, respectively, face Democratic challenges by Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti in the 8th and former TV news anchor Janelle Stelson in the 10th.
In the 2024 election, Trump only carried these districts by one to five points, and in the past two election cycles for the 7th District, Mackenzie only beat his Democratic opponent by one percentage point, or around 4,000 votes. The other two districts were only decided 51%-49% in 2024.
To redistrict or not: Republican edges in Southern toss-ups
Virginia Democrats attempted to redraw the state’s 2nd Congressional District in the Virginia Beach area, but they were blocked by a court. Still, they hope to win the seat back from Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans with their candidate, former Rep. Elaine Luria, who served the district from 2019-2023 and lost to Kiggans in 2022 by less than four percentage points.
Down in the Sunshine State, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz represents the state’s 23rd district in an area that includes his residence in Parkland, Florida, but after a redistricting shuffle, he is running to stay in Congress in Florida's new 25th district, which will not include his home. Republicans hope that by shifting Moskowitz from a district rated "likely Democrat" by Cook Political Report to the new toss-up district, their candidate, attorney Scott Singer, can oust the Democrat.
Also in Florida, Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor is running for an 11th term in the state's 14th Congressional District in the Tampa area, while her Republican opponent, Mike Beltran, could possibly pick up extra votes from the district being redrawn.
Kondik noted that on Election Night, Florida and Virginia close polls early and regularly report votes quickly, so keeping eyes on those results could be a way for voters to have an early indication of where the elections are headed.
“I don’t know if that’s a must-win district for Democrats, but if Kiggans [in Virginia] were to hold on, I think that’d be suggestive of Republicans outperforming expectations,” Kondik said.
Moskowitz and Castor winning in Florida would be a sign of a good night for Democrats, he added.
"Florida is where we get the first signal about whether there is a trend brewing," Hopkins said.
After 2024 gains with Hispanic voters in Texas and a redistricting to make the lines more favorable to them, Republicans hope Texas' 34th Congressional District in the South Texas Gulf Coast region will swing toward their candidate, former assistant U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Texas Eric Flores, and incumbent Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez will be ousted.
In North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Don Davis’ district was redrawn with more Republican-leaning lines, making him vulnerable to Republican Laurie Buckhout, a former Army officer in the Rocky Mount-Greenville district.
The Midwest is a key region in election years
The Midwest is a typical hotbed for swing voters in races, and Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa have some races to watch. In Ohio, family abuse allegations have put a Republican-leaning district in play.
In Michigan’s 7th district, which includes the state capital of Lansing, incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Barrett faces Democratic challenger William Lawrence. The swing district went red in 2024 when Barrett won the seat by 3.7 percentage points after Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin vacated it to run for Senate.
The representative for Michigan's 10th Congressional District in the Detroit suburbs, Rep. John James, is the Republican nominee for governor, and polling has the race nearly evenly split between Republican Michael Bouchard, an Army veteran who served in Iraq, and Democrat Christina Hines, a prosecutor.
Wisconsin Democrats hope to take back a seat that they held for more than 25 years in the 3rd Congressional District in the western part of the state. Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden is defending his seat against Democrat Rebecca Cooke, a small-business owner. The district was represented from 1997-2023 by Democratic Rep. Ron Kind.
Iowa Republicans defending their seats in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts “appear to be in significant trouble,” according to Kondik’s Sept. 16 predictions. The races are viewed as toss-ups, as well as the Iowa 2nd district, which has no incumbent but appears to be “a little redder.”
In Ohio, Rep. Max Miller’s seat in the Cleveland-area 7th Congressional District is seen as a toss-up, amid a public family legal dispute. Miller’s ex-wife, Emily Moreno, who is also the daughter of Ohio’s Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno, has leveled abuse allegations against Miller, who denied the allegations. The senator and his daughter and Miller have been involved in a public quarrel, involving the daughter of Miller and Moreno, which is unusually personal for Capitol Hill politics.
Republicans also defending Rocky Mountain West seats
Republicans are also playing defense in Colorado and Arizona.
Republican Rep. Gabe Evans is defending his seat in Colorado's 8th district against Democratic state Rep. Manny Rutinel and Libertarian computer programmer David Wood. The district, which was created just east of Boulder after the 2020 Census, is one of the nation’s top battleground districts: Evans won by only 0.8 percentage points in 2024.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District's Republican incumbent, Rep. Juan Ciscomani, faces three challengers for his Tucson-area seat, including Democratic Navy and Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza. The district is a Democratic target that has been closely contested in recent election cycles.
The state’s 1st Congressional District is open, as current Republican Rep. David Schweikert sought the governor’s seat, and is not running for reelection. Schweikert lost in the gubernational primary, and Republican nominee Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker, is vying to keep the House seat red against Democratic nominee Amish Shah.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: These races will decide whether Democrats or Republicans win House control
