The NFL offseason is in the rearview and we'll try to pretend that the preseason never happened – for the most part. Trades, free agency and draft picks have the league looking a tad different heading into a new season, even though the goal remains the same.
Survivor pools are all about strategy, spotting value and identifying traps. Stick around long enough and you might find a mountain of cash on the other side, as well as bragging rights if that's your thing.
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Everyone is back on the island and only one can be left standing. Why not us?
Here's our picks for your survivor pool for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season and, while you're at it, join our free-to-play USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool.
NFL survivor picks Week 1
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Cleveland Browns)
The idea of
being able to fade Deshaun Watson against the 2025 AFC South champions just has to make you feel giddy. Jacksonville's defense posted the second-most takeaways in the league with 31 last season and they should be salivating at the matchup against a turnover-prone Watson.
Last time we saw the Browns' quarterback, he tossed three interceptions, fumbled five times and was sacked 33 times in just seven games during the 2024 season. Of course, that Browns team and this one are entirely different, but how much has the quarterback changed?
If we look at the Jags, they are determined to shake off a devastating playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills. It's Year 2 for Liam Coen and Jacksonville should hit the ground running against a Myles Garrett-less defense. And perhaps that is the biggest thing. The Browns are sporting plenty of rookies across the board, but Garrett won't be there to drag them to victory.
The Jaguars should roll in Week 1.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
This is a fight between two different weight classes. The Chargers are considered to be a heavyweight opponent in 2026 and a potential dark horse Super Bowl contender after Mike McDaniel came aboard as the offensive coordinator and began establishing a new identity.
Could this be the season that Justin Herbert takes the next step and becomes an MVP candidate? That is the job McDaniel is tasked with.
On the flip side, the Cardinals are supposed to be among the league's worst. They come into the year with Jacoby Brissett locked in as the starter and Mike LaFleur taking the reins as a first-year head coach. Arizona figures to have a frisky offense, but L.A. should be capable of zapping the Cards' wings en route to a Week 1 victory.
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Miami Dolphins)
With the chalky picks out of the way, let's get a little crazy. In something straight out of a Madden video game, Kirk Cousins will lead the Raiders into a Week 1 matchup against Malik Willis and the Dolphins. Yes, you read that right.
The Dolphins are expected to be the worst team in the league and separated themselves from the others by tearing down the roster to start what will be a complete rebuild. Their reward for that is a cross-country trip to "Sin City" to take on the new-look Raiders.
Vegas will debut some new additions and welcome back some familiar faces in this contest. Brock Bowers is back, Maxx Crosby is back, but will Ashton Jeanty be back? That remains the biggest question for Vegas in the opener, considering the running back went down with a sprained ankle during the preseason.
This is a game the Raiders should win. This might also be the only time all season you could use the Raiders. Just because you can do it doesn't mean you should, however. Don't discount a hungry Dolphins team in Week 1, especially after hearing all the 0-17 talk this offseason. They could win this game with some explosive plays from Willis and De'Von Achane. If you're the all-in or all-out type though, this is one way to stand out from the pack.
New York Jets (at Tennessee Titans)
If you thought our previous candidate was a bit off the rails, let us introduce you to this road team on the wrong side of a revenge spot. The Jets, coming off a three-win season, head south to the "Music City" for a date with Robert Saleh's Titans.
The former Jets' coach would probably love nothing more than to get a win against the team that fired him, but revenge is not a sound strategy in this case – especially since New York is objectively the better team. Jets QB Geno Smith will be eager to shake off a lost 2025 season with the Raiders, when he was surrounded by arguably the worst supporting cast in the league. Jets coach Aaron Glenn will try to notch an early win in his second season, hoping to keep the hot seat rumblings from heating up.
While the Jets can be a sneaky decent team in 2026, this selection is more about fading the Titans than anything else. Cam Ward struggled in the preseason and Tennessee's defense was shredded by the Seahawks' backups during their exhibition contest.
Saleh and co. added a bunch of former Jets and Giants this offseason, the same Jets and Giants that contributed to some of the worst teams in the league over the last decade. The Titans didn't look like a well-oiled machine in the preseason. And they have given us no reason to believe that'll change in Week 1. While we don't recommend trusting a road team in survivor, this is one exception worthy of an endorsement for those feeling really frisky.
Best NFL survivor pool pick this week
The Los Angeles Chargers.
They might be the most popular pick of Week 1, but for good reason. If history is any indication, Jim Harbaugh's team will never be healthier than it is now and we aren't going to pass on this early opportunity. Herbert and the offense shined in limited preseason action as the quarterback completed 3-of-5 pass attempts for 83 yards and a touchdown.
In fairness to the Cardinals, Brissett completed all five pass attempts for 44 yards and a touchdown in his preseason action. However, running back Jeremiyah Love isn't considered a lock to play in this game. Even if he does, it's unclear how the rookie will look after suffering an ankle injury. Arizona could be more pass-dependent in that case, especially if they have to play catch-up against an explosive Chargers offense.
It is in those moments where we should expect to see some turnovers and the talent gap show. So let's see one go through the hoop. After all, you have to make the layups.
We will see you next week.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Best NFL survivor pool picks Week 1: Which team should you trust?
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