Polls, prediction markets diverge on Texas Senate, governor's race

As Texans head to the polls during early voting, traditional surveys and the fast-growing world of prediction markets are telling two different stories about who will win the state's biggest races this election cycle. Traditional pollsters put the Texas Senate and governor's race within the margin o

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What is the story about?

As Texans head to the polls during early voting, traditional surveys and the fast-growing world of prediction markets are telling two different stories about who will win the state's biggest races this election cycle.

Traditional pollsters put the Texas Senate and governor's race within the margin of error, or just slightly outside —a trend that’s held for months.

However, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi think it isn't close.

While traditional polls offer a snapshot of how voters feel in that moment and sample Texas voters, prediction markets let eligible U.S. traders put a wager on the question's outcome.

Here's a look at the two biggest prediction markets as of noon Oct. 21 in the U.S. and what they say about the Texas Senate and governor race

compared with traditional polling.

FILE PHOTO: Kalshi logo appears in this illustration taken April 22, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Who will win the Texas U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton, James Talarico?

Polymarket: Talarico 65%, Paxton 36%. Market volume = $4,842,300.

Kalshi: Talarico 63%, Paxton 37%. Market volume = $34,659,553.

Who will win the Texas governor's race between Greg Abbott, Gina Hinojosa?

Polymarket: Abbott 70%, Hinojosa 30%. Market volume = $675,833.

Kalshi: Abbott 70%, Hinojosa 30%. Market volume = $3,174,763.

Who will win the Texas Senate and governor's races (combo)?

Combo markets price specific split-ticket outcomes, letting traders bet on both races together.

Polymarket: Market volume = $20,944

Greg Abbott and James Talarico win — 45%
Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton win — 32%
Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico win — 24%
Gina Hinojosa and Ken Paxton win — less than 1%

Kalshi: Market volume = $154,904.

Greg Abbott and James Talarico win — 48%
Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton win — 32%
Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico win — 23%
Gina Hinojosa and Ken Paxton win — less than 1%

Recent Texas US Senate race polls

Here's what other October polls have shown as early voting ends on Oct. 30:

U of H Hobby poll(Oct. 18) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%
Marist poll (Oct. 14) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%.
UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%.
ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%.
YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%.
Fox News(Oct. 1) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%.

Recent Texas governor's race polls

Here's what October polls showed as Election Day is on Nov. 3:

U of H Hobby poll(Oct. 18) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 46%.
Marist poll (Oct. 14) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45%.
UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 48%
ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 47%
UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 44%.
YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Hinojosa 48%, Abbott 47%.
The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 46%.
Fox News(Oct. 1) — Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 47%.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Polls, prediction markets diverge on Texas Senate, governor's race