With the Texas Senate race entering its final days before statewide early voting opens, a new poll shows the race tightening again and possibly shifting in Republicans' favor.
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are now within the margin of error — a shift from where the race stood a month ago, according to a ReconMR Oct. 13 poll.
“A Texas Democrat has not won an election to the U.S. Senate since 1988. With less than a month until Election Day, Talarico holds a small four-point lead over Paxton, 48-44%, after leading by six points last month,” said Lindsey Hendren, a senior research analyst at ReconMR
Here is a deeper look at the poll and how it compares to other October polls.
James Talarico, Ken Paxton Texas Senate race moves within poll's margin or error
The ReconMR Texas Poll surveyed
617 Texas likely voters and has an overall margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
The poll found that both candidates are holding on to their partisan bases, with Talarico leading Democrats 92% to 2% and Paxton leading Republicans 87% to 7%. Likely independent voters favor Talarico by two-to-one, 60% to 30%.
Talarico has a 48% to 43% favorability rating, down slightly from 50% to 39% in September, while Paxton has a 40% to 55% favorability rating, up slightly from 38% to 55% in September.
By region, Talarico holds a commanding 74-21% lead in Austin, but trails Paxton by 18 points in rural Texas.
The poll also found that Talarico still leads by 18 points in San Antonio/South Texas, 56% to 38%; however, it’s down from his 33-point lead in September. Both candidates are running virtually even in Houston and Talarico holds a slight advantage in Dallas-Fort Worth.
“Can Texas Democrats – with a lot of help from outside money – flip a Republican-held Senate seat? Maybe. There’s still plenty of time between now and Election Day. The race for Senate will come down to three things: turnout, turnout, turnout," Hendren said
Recent Texas U.S. Senate race polls
Here's what other October polls have shown. Early voting begins Oct. 19:
- UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%.
- YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
- The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%.
- Fox News(Oct. 1) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New Texas Senate poll shows Republicans gaining as early voting nears
