DALLAS — Republicans begin a two-day convention Wednesday, Sept. 9 in Dallas facing the daunting task of shaking up a midterm election favoring Democrats, who are becoming increasingly bullish about their chances of winning both the House and Senate.
Less than two months before the Nov. 3 election, Republicans are descending on the Lone Star State for the party's first-ever midterm convention in need of a jolt to fend off a potential blue wave. They're banking on President Donald Trump to ignite the MAGA base and help turn around their outlook.
The Polymarket betting market as of Sept. 8 is giving Democrats an 87% chance to gain control of the House and a 53% chance to take the Senate, up from 28% this time a year ago, as several Senate Democratic
candidates in competitive races have surged to polling leads.
Decision Desk HQ, a closely watched election forecaster, on Sept. 8 gave Democrats a 50% chance of winning the Senate. For much of the past year, the forecaster has called the Senate decisively for Republicans.
Republican officials are calling the midterm convention "Trumpapalozza," with the president and other speakers planning to tout Trump's agenda, paint Democrats as dangerous "communists" and urge Trump's most loyal supporters to start paying attention to the midterms.
“Republicans are in the process of having a bad year because people are unhappy about the economy and the war and some of the other things that the administration has done,” said Republican strategist Charlie Black. “So you got to give them some good news.”
Trump is set to deliver primetime speeches on both nights of the convention and will have to fight for television viewership with the first games of the NFL regular season. Several Trump administration officials are slated to address the crowd at the American Airlines Center as well as Republican midterm candidates ‒ though others in close elections have decided they're better off sitting the convention out.
Republicans hope the convention can slow Democratic momentum.
Democrats hold polling leads in eight of the nine top battleground Senate races, according to the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls: North Carolina (+8 percentage points), Georgia (+7.5), Maine (+2.3), Michigan (+2.3), Texas (+2.4), New Hampshire (+2), Ohio (+2.6), and Alaska (+2.) Republicans have a narrow lead (+1.8) percentage points in Iowa.
Democrats need to pick up four seats – while holding Democratic-held seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire - to take control of the Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 seat advantage. Close races in Ohio, Alaska and Iowa have forced Republicans to spend resources in states that were once considered safely Republican. Trump has said he plans to visit historically Republican Alaska during the homestretch of the campaign.
To take over the House, which Republicans control 218-215, Democrats needs to pick up three seats.
Despite his unpopularity in polls, Republicans are betting on Trump's strong standing among his core supporters to rev up the voting base. But it’s a gamble as Democrats in close races work to tie their Republican opponents to Americans' negative views on Trump's handling of the economy and the war in Iran.
An Economist/YouGov poll released last month found that 91% of registered Democrats definitely plan to vote, compared with 79% of registered Republicans. The survey found that voters favored, by a 46% to 40% margin, a generic Democratic candidate for Congress over a Republican one. But the Democratic advantage expanded to 11 points among those who definitely plan to vote.
Republican efforts to erase the enthusiasm gap start in Dallas.
“This is really just an attempt to provide a rallying point and a media focus for the Republican Party as it enters the home stretch for the the midterms, which are shaping up to be very difficult for the party," said Calvin Jillson, a political science professor at Souther Methodist University. "And Democrats do seem to be energized.”
Reach Joey Garrison on X @joeygarrison and Zac Anderson @zacjanderson
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Republicans descend on Dallas in search of jolt at midterm convention
