More people have walked on the moon than the number of drivers that have won three championships in the NASCAR Cup Series.
Put simply, Kyle Larson has the chance to join some elite company on Sunday, Nov. 8 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Larson enters the race with essentially one hand on what would be his third championship trophy. He would join a list of Hall of Famers and legends of the sport as three-time champions, becoming a member of a group that includes Lee Petty, David Pearson, Richard Petty, Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart and Joey Logano.
Again, 12 Americans have walked on the moon. Only 10 have won the NASCAR championship three times in their careers. Pretty remarkable, right?
Larson has a 67-point lead over second-place driver Christopher Bell entering the race in South Florida, and a 70-point edge over regular-season champion Denny Hamlin. Mathematically, Hamlin and Bell are the only two other drivers who can snatch the championship away from Larson.
But a whole lot would have to go wrong for the No. 5 Chevrolet on one of Larson’s best tracks for him to not win the championship.
Regardless of what any other driver does, Larson needs just nine points to clinch the championship. He can do that by finishing third in Stage 1 or Stage 2, or combining for eight points across those first two stages; he'll also get a point for starting the race. Should Larson be running outside of the top 10 in the first two stages, all he has to do is finish 28th or better.
That should be easy enough for a driver who is on one of the best postseason runs in NASCAR history.
So far in nine races in the postseason Chase, Larson has three wins, three other top-five finishes, and three other top-10 finishes. His lone mulligan came at Phoenix when he blew a tire with 29 laps to go and slammed into the wall on Turn 1, ending his day with a DNF. Even with that disastrous result included, Larson has a 6.78 average finish through nine Chase races.
And consider that perhaps no other driver is as good at Homestead as Larson. The Hendrick Motorsports wheelman has an average finish of 12th there through 12 races, which is eighth-best all-time. Larson also has led more laps at Homestead than any other driver in the history of the Cup Series with 645. He has two wins there, coming in 2022 and 2025. Larson has also won at Homestead in the second-tier O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and in the Craftsman Truck Series.
"I foresee my race looking like any other Homestead race for me," Larson said Thursday, Nov. 5. "Try to get to the front and manage the race from there, and hopefully the first stage goes well and then you can really just race free after that. I still don't think it's going to change the approach of the race, but you can race with less worry at that point."
But of course, this is NASCAR, where unpredictable chaos is always lurking.
In 2023 at Homestead, Larson crashed into the sand and water-filled barrel safety barriers while trying to enter pit road. He finished 34th after the wreck with 44 laps to go.
Hamlin and Bell basically need something like that to happen to have a chance at securing the championship, and they also need to run extremely well. Neither driver can capture the championship without winning the race, and they’ll also need to score stage points.
Bell has to win and score at least 14 stage points to remain in championship contention. Hamlin has to win and score at least 17 stage points to stay in the hunt.
In their careers, the most Bell has outscored Larson in a single race is by 50 points. For Hamlin, the most he’s outscored Larson in the stage-race era is by 62 points. Neither of those will be enough for the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers to bring the championship home.
Should Bell secure a maximum 76-point day — winning the race and sweeping both stages — he would still need Larson to finish 29th or worse without any stage points. Hamlin would need the No. 5 to finish 32nd or worse without stage points. With the most wins in the Chase this season, Larson also owns tiebreakers over Bell and Hamlin.
To sum it up, Bell and Hamlin have to have historically great races and need something catastrophic to happen to Larson early in the race to have a puncher’s chance of winning the Cup Series championship.
The title is ultimately Larson’s to lose.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What does Kyle Larson have to do to clinch the NASCAR Cup championship?
