Some political pitches are more challenging than others. And some, like the pitch the Republican Party will try to make to midterm voters in two weeks, are damn near impossible.
The Republican National Committee is hosting a "midterm convention" on Sept. 9 and 10 in Dallas "to celebrate the accomplishments of President Donald J. Trump, showcase the strength of the Republican Party and its slate of candidates, and unite Americans around a bold vision for the future."
If that sounds disconnected from reality, then you are probably in close touch with reality. Trump is so deeply unpopular that the convention platform and attention that he clearly covets could backfire for his party.
Republicans are only interested in feeding their MAGA base
Trump's so far disastrous second term is precisely the reason the Republicans
have gone from likely to lose control of the U.S. House in the midterms to possibly also losing control of the U.S. Senate. Democrats, if they control one or both chambers next year, will slam the brakes on the president's madness and scrutinize his open corruption.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, told me the Republicans face "a real potential for backlash" as news reports and social media posts circulate from the convention.
"Many speakers will enrage the Democrats and independents who already detest this administration," Sabato said.
Midterm political pitches typically appeal across political party lines. But Trump is only trying to energize his MAGA base at a time when Democrats are showing a "higher level of engagement" in the latest special elections and primary elections, Sabato said.
"No matter what they say, this event isn't aimed at the broader electorate," Sabato said. "This is a force-feeding for MAGA."
What is the truth of Trump's second presidency? Failure.
This is the state of the Republican Party, distorted by Trump into his own MAGA image, always boasting with blustering bunk, always eager to deny the truth that everyone can see and hear.
Trump makes everything about himself. His midterm convention will be the same. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters in June told USA TODAY that the Dallas convention will be a "Trumpapalooza."
Let's run a branding check on that.
A recent YouGov/The Economist survey found that Trump's net approval rating is negative in 47 out of 50 states and in Washington, DC. He's only above water with his approval ratings in Idaho, West Virginia and Wyoming.
In Texas, where Trump will headline the convention, his net approval rating was -22 percentage points, according to the YouGov/The Economist survey.
Trump is feeling the heat. In an Aug. 24 social media post, he whined about "Fake Polls" while insisting, "We're winning against EVERYONE."
"They're called 'demoralization operations' where they try to demoralize Republicans so that they don't go out and vote – but the actual Polls are tremendous," Trump wrote, without supplying any "actual Polls" to support his claim.
Here is what real polling shows – Trump is deeply unpopular with a growing majority of Americans and losing ground specifically with Republican voters. His war in Iran, the rising cost of gasoline, his irrational obsession with international tariffs that drive up costs for Americans – none of that feels like the "winning" that Trump keeps proclaiming.
Consider Trump's approval rating among Republican voters at the start of his second term on Jan. 20, 2025, compared with this Aug. 8, as captured by YouGov/The Economist surveys across over 18 months.
The RNC convention could pave the way for Democratic midterm wins
Trump started his term with a 91% approval rating among Republicans. That dropped to 65% at the start of 2026. And it fell again to 58% in early August. That's still a majority for approval, but 4 in 10 Republicans no longer support Trump's approach to the presidency.
Expect to see that tension play out in Republican settings in the 10 weeks from now until the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
The Michigan GOP held a nominating convention on Aug. 22 for candidates in that state. But the Detroit Free Press noted that very few Republican candidates making pitches from the stage mentioned Trump by name, including former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who was endorsed by Trump in his bid for a Senate seat.
That wouldn't happen if the president wasn't a drag on his party. And Republicans would not risk his wrath for leaving him out of the speeches unless they thought the wrath of voters was more of a danger.
So Trump will get a big stage in Dallas and the attention he constantly craves. And his Republican Party will probably pay the political price for any backlash that benefits Democrats eager to control the next Congress.
Follow USA TODAY columnist Chris Brennan on Bluesky, @bychrisbrennan.bsky.social, and on X, @ByChrisBrennan. Sign up for his weekly newsletter, Translating Politics, here.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The GOP midterm convention is for an audience of one. Trump. | Opinion
