The debut College Football Playoff rankings will begin with a question at the very top: Who will be No. 1?
The favorite to land atop the rankings on Tuesday night is unbeaten Miami, one of just three teams still perfect heading into November.
The Hurricanes don’t have a dynamite résumé of wins and have struggled lately, needing double overtime to beat Florida State and a comeback in the fourth quarter to sneak past North Carolin
a.But at a time when there are so few one-loss teams, let alone undefeated teams, Miami has a solid argument for becoming the 11th program to earn the No. 1 spot at any point in the playoff rankings.
The rankings are less certain from there. While Georgia is set to be No. 2, there are arguments for several teams to land
anywhere from No. 3 through No. 7 on Tuesday night. Here’s how the debut rankings should unfold:
1. Miami (8-0)
Miami has a very good win against Wake Forest, another five wins against Power Four competition and four wins against teams with a non-losing record. No, the résumé isn’t great. But the impression of Hurricanes’ strength of schedule change after taking on Notre Dame on Saturday night.
2. Georgia (7-1)
The Bulldogs would be a clear-cut No. 1 had they not flopped against Auburn. Even still, Georgia will get consideration for the top spot thanks to wins against Alabama and Florida. Georgia has also been dominant in every win except against the Crimson Tide.
3. Brigham Young (7-1)
Here’s one spot where things could differ wildly from the US LBM Coaches Poll. Ranked No. 8 there, the Cougars could leap to No. 3 on Tuesday night almost entirely thanks to last month’s win against Notre Dame. Other than that, BYU has a very strong win against Arizona but struggled to put TCU, Iowa State and Arizona State. There’s also the loss to Central Florida to consider.
4. Utah (8-0)
Utah might be ahead of BYU be virtue of being unbeaten and having one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Utes also have an SEC win against Arkansas, an impressive win at home against Houston and just routed Cincinnati one week after the Bearcats upset Texas Tech.
5. Indiana (8-1)
Indiana is a tough case to consider. Being the defending national champions and making back-to-back playoff appearances helps. So does a résumé that has some solid if unspectacular wins, led by North Texas, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan and Minnesota. The Hoosiers’ one loss, to Ohio State, is also very strong. The problem is the eye test, which Indiana has not passed. The Hoosiers still have a stronger case for No. 5 than Notre Dame.
6. Notre Dame (7-1)
Notre Dame’s best win, against Wisconsin, took a hit after the Badgers were blanked by Iowa. Otherwise, the Fighting Irish have no wins of any consequence: Rice, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina, Stanford and Navy. As with the Hurricanes, though, the Irish can change their postseason outlook with a marquee win this weekend.
7. UCLA (8-0)
Preseason perceptions can and do linger deep into the regular season. For UCLA, a perfect record probably won’t be enough to overcome the out-of-nowhere vibe of this debut year under coach Bob Chesney. That’s one reason why the Bruins will come in last among the unbeaten teams. Another is the fact that UCLA has two good Big Ten wins against Oregon and Wisconsin but has also beaten opponents with a combined 2-13 mark in conference play in Purdue, Maryland and Michigan State and also feature a non-descript non-conference schedule.
8. Kentucky (7-1)
Kentucky will be behind all the other one-loss Power Four teams except for Wake Forest. That might be not be a fair representation of what the Wildcats have achieved under new coach Will Stein, including a great win against LSU along with wins against South Carolina, Texas A&M and Oklahoma.
9. Texas (6-2)
Texas definitely hasn’t looked the part. But you can’t argue against wins over Ohio State, Tennessee and Mississippi, a threesome that’s unmatched by any other contender. Those wins will land Texas at No. 9 at the lowest and might even lead them ahead of Kentucky
.
10. Ohio State (6-2)
Ohio State remains in the field in this projection but would not have room for error in November while playing a backup quarterback. Based on how things went against Southern California, the Buckeyes may not avoid another loss while taking on Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan.
11. Mississippi (6-2)
The Rebels owns wins against Louisville, LSU and Missouri. They’ve also lost to Florida and Texas. While Alabama and LSU will meet this weekend in what could be a playoff eliminator, it’s not clear whether Ole Miss can lose to Georgia on Saturday and still have the résumé to earn an at-large bid with three losses.
12. Wake Forest (7-1)
Predicting Wake to come in ahead of LSU might be overly optimistic given how the committee tends to give the SEC the benefit of the doubt. But the Tigers only one win against a Power Four team with a winning record is Clemson. While the Demon Deacons don’t have a great strength of schedule, they played Miami tight in September and have been rolling of late, winning four ACC games in a row by a combined score of 187-31.
Highest Group of Six: Boise State
Boise State should squeeze into the rankings at or near the back, maybe even at No. 25. There’s also a chance the Broncos are unranked; there were no Group of Six teams in last season’s debut rankings, for example. Boise narrowly lost to Oregon and has beat Memphis, Western Michigan and Fresno State.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How will first College Football Playoff rankings look? Predicting first CFP reveal
