The debut College Football Playoff rankings will shape the rest of the regular season.
That’s obvious even among the many questions that come along with Tuesday night’s unveiling, beginning with which team lands at No. 1 and how the selection committee deals with the many two-loss contenders in the SEC and Big Ten.
At a minimum, the first rankings provide a snapshot of the postseason race while suggesting how the playoff picture could be impact by the wide number of possible scenarios that may unfold in November.
One thing the rankings is expected to illustrate is the depth of the SEC, which should place four teams in the top nine. The rankings should also
show the top-heavy strength of the Big Ten.
Here are the biggest questions heading into Tuesday night’s rankings:
Who will be No. 1 in the playoff rankings?
Miami is the favorite to be No. 1, mirroring the US LBM Coaches Poll. An unbeaten record is the primary reason. Other factors in the Hurricanes’ corner are a very strong victory against Wake Forest and two solid wins against Clemson and Pittsburgh. But earlier dominance has given way to tighter games against Florida State and North Carolina, poking holes in the theory that Miami will cruise to an ACC crown.
There’s really only one other contender for No. 1 in Georgia. There’s no question the Bulldogs would be atop the rankings had they not lost a strange one to Auburn. Even still, they have wins against Alabama and Florida while posting four of five SEC wins by at least 18 points.
Where will unbeaten Utah and UCLA rank?
Utah could come in as high as No. 3 behind Miami and Georgia but could fall as low as No. 5 or No. 6 because of a lack of marquee wins. The Utes have added wins against Houston and Cincinnati the past two games, though, and the win against the Bearcats could carry weight with the committee after they beat Texas Tech.
UCLA won’t be higher than Utah. The Bruins have a case for being No. 7 or No. 8 but might drop to No. 9. That drop would be attributed to just two wins against opponents with a winning record and none against a team with fewer than three losses.
How will the committee rank the two-loss SEC teams?
And will any two-loss SEC teams come in ahead of a one-loss Power Four contender? That’s definitely a possibility given what Texas can offer as a résumé with wins against Ohio State, Tennessee and Mississippi. That will be enough to make the Longhorns the highest-ranked two-loss team. That may also be enough to put them ahead of one-loss Kentucky, which doesn’t have the same quality of victory. Other two-loss SEC teams that will factor into the top half of the rankings are Alabama, Mississippi, LSU and Tennessee.
Will Notre Dame come in ahead of BYU?
You wouldn’t think so, for one hard-to-miss reason: BYU beat Notre Dame at home last month in one of the best regular-season wins in program history. Another factor against the Fighting Irish is a pretty flimsy run of wins, with just one against an opponent currently with a winning record. Looking from the Cougars’ perspective, that win against the Irish is one of the best single victories by any team this season.
At the very least, the win overshadows the loss to Central Florida and narrow wins against TCU, Iowa State and Arizona State. Overall, that should be enough to put BYU not just ahead of Notre Dame but also ahead of unbeaten Utah, which has a nice win against Houston but has also struggled at times in conference play.
Where will Ohio State be in the playoff rankings?
Behind Texas, at least. And likely behind all of the unbeaten and one-loss teams. In that case, Ohio State would be No. 10 in the debut rankings. But the Buckeyes could inch higher thanks to road wins against Iowa and Indiana. They also have solid road losses to Texas and Southern California. But the highest possible ranking on Tuesday night is probably No. 8, since Ohio State won’t be ranked ahead of unbeaten UCLA and will be behind the one-loss Hoosiers despite the head-to-head win.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What will CFP committee do with Ohio State, Notre Dame and two-loss SEC teams?
