When 2024 draft classmates Caleb Williams and Drake Maye first met as rookies, each quarterback floundered in a sloppy, low-scoring affair. When the two meet in primetime on "Thursday Night Football," both passers will have an opportunity to serve up a reminder of how far they've come.
Williams is fresh off one of his best career performancesoperating from the pocket, having completed 30 of 36 passes to power a win over the Falcons in his return from a three-game absence. Maye, meanwhile, had an uneven outing against the Jets but has still managed to largely leave his early-season struggles behind. Both signal-callers, however, are dealing with challenges to their supporting cast. New England, which placed receiver Romeo Doubs on injured reserve
this week, is still trying to get A.J. Brown settled after he caught just three of 10 targets in his first work back from a sprained ankle.
Meanwhile, the short week could leave Bears running back Kyle Monangai facing an uphill battle to rejoin the lineup.
Bears vs Patriots odds, moneyline, over/under
Opening lines:
- Spread: Bears -1.5
- Moneyline: Bears -122; Patriots +102
- Total: 47.5
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Bears vs Patriots expert picks
Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz: Bears 34, Patriots 28
With Montez Sweat still serving a suspension, the Bears' pass rush hardly strikes fear into many opponents. But New England is hurting significantly up front, and a quick turnaround could leave the line in a state of disrepair. Between that and the thinning out of the receiving corps, Maye and the Patriots could be in for a feast-or-famine kind of night. With Williams and Ben Johnson's offense better situated to stay on schedule and string together long drives, Chicago could have the edge.
Adam Kaufman: Bears 27, Patriots 24
Three straight dominant wins, A.J. Brown's back and Drake Maye looks increasingly comfortable. Plenty to like about the Patriots. Their offensive line? That's another conversation. The Pats survived another round of injuries against the Jets without allowing a sack, but repeating that performance on a short week in Chicago is a significant task with multiple Maye protectors nursing injuries. Romeo Doubs landing on injured reserve doesn't help, either. Caleb Williams looked sharp in his return against the Falcons, and his ability to extend plays should create opportunities against a defense that needs its offense to sustain possessions. The Bears have injuries of their own, so I'm expecting a competitive game. Chicago deserves the slight edge at home, but one interesting betting note: Closing underdogs have covered the spread in 10 straight primetime night games, and those underdogs are 15-4 against the spread this year.
Bears vs Patriots picks roundup
Arizona Republic: Bears 27, Patriots 24
"With three straight wins, the Patriots are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. But the Bears have Caleb Williams back and are at home."
CBS Sports: Bears 27, Patriots 20
"Drake Maye has looked spectacular over the past three weeks, but he's been playing with a lead. ... The Bears will blitz Maye into oblivion and force him to make mistakes that we saw him make earlier in the season. He threw six interceptions through the first three weeks, but has only thrown one over the past three weeks."
The Athletic: Bears -3
"Have you seen the Patriots offensive line? Morgan Moses and Alijah Vera-Tucker both suffered injuries last Sunday against the Jets and on a short week, so it’s a good opportunity to fade a banged-up unit."
Sports Illustrated: Under 50.5
"Unless I'm missing something, I'm not quite sure why the total for this game is in the 50s. Sure, the Bears' offense is much more explosive with Caleb Williams at quarterback, but even with that being the case, these two offenses rank 12th and 14th in EPA per play this season and seventh and 12th in success rate. A high total would make sense if the two defenses in this game were bad, but they rank in the top half of the league in most metrics. In fact, the Bears' defense comes into this game ranking fourth in opponent success rate."
Where to watch Patriots at Bears
- Matchup: Bears vs. Patriots
- Date: Oct. 22
- Time: 8:15 p.m.
- Venue: Soldier Field
- Location: Chicago, Illinois
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Bears vs. Patriots early predictions: Best bets to target on TNF
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