Can you hear it?
Someone let the dogs out and they have a lot to say. Except this bark promises to come with a side of bite – and we're not talking about a nibble either.
No, this is much worse than the mailman, the solicitor at your door or even the pesky chihuahua at the dog park.
This is the NFL.
It's the first Sunday slate of the season and Week 1 has proven to be chaotic in the past. The week itself is often called a liar, since those early results don't always indicate future success. After all, the Las Vegas Raiders defeated the New England Patriots on the road in Week 1 last season. As it turns out, the Raiders ended up with the No. 1 pick in the draft and the Patriots were the AFC champions.
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The dogs aren't as big in Week 1 this year, with plenty of pick'em contests on the slate. That has created opportunities to back teams to pull off mini-upsets in Week 1.
Here are the underdogs we think are worth backing to start the season with a win.
NFL Week 1 best bets: Underdogs
Odds via BetMGM as of Thursday, Sept. 10
Houston Texans +105 (vs. Buffalo Bills)
If you listen to many of the experts and talking heads, this is the Bills' year. Then again, every year is the Bills' year until it isn't. In fairness, Josh Allen remains arguably the league's best quarterback and the Bills have plenty of things going for them in 2026, but that won't be the case in Week 1.
Buffalo brings in a new coaching staff, which almost certainly translates to some growing pains. More importantly, the landing spot couldn't be worse. Joe Brady's first task as the new head coach is to go into Houston and take on one of the sport's premier defenses. Good luck.
The Texans spent the offseason improving what was already a dominant defense, while also adopting a new philosophy of sorts on offense. Questions remain around C.J. Stroud, but the addition of David Montgomery to the rushing attack figures to lessen the burden on the quarterback's right arm. And that's without factoring in some offensive line improvements as well.
Buffalo might be the better team down the road, but they aren't right now. Let's not forget that Davis Mills quarterbacked the Texans to a home win over the Bills last year, too. Stroud has something to prove and this feels like a classic case of the wrong team being favored.
New York Jets +105 (at Tennessee Titans)
Whatever your feelings about the Jets, it's hard not to love backing this team in Week 1. With veteran additions across the board, New York now has leadership and experience to pair with its young weapons.
On offense, the Jets will see the return of Geno Smith to the green-and-white. It has been a long journey back to the Jets for Smith, who carved out a nice career after leaving "Gang Green." Fortunately for the quarterback, he is stepping into an offense set up for success behind a quality offensive line and surrounded by a talented core of skill-position players. It's a major improvement from the situation he experienced in Vegas last year and we expect the offense to get off to a fast start.
After all, Robert Saleh even indicated he believes his former team could have a top offense in the league this season.
"I fully expect them to be a really, really good offense as the year progresses, and I would not be surprised if this unit finishes in the top half of the league," Saleh said during a press conference on Sept. 9. "It's pretty talented."
The preseason is virtually meaningless in the grand scheme, but sometimes we learn something valuable. This year, we saw a Titans team that was outmatched when it mattered and a quarterback that struggled in limited action. Tennessee is a team we'll likely look to fade all year and there's no better time to start than Week 1.
Carolina Panthers +140 (vs. Chicago Bears)
The Bears bandwagon didn't just reach capacity last season – it established a waitlist as well. However, Week 1 is a great time to get out of the line. Ben Johnson became everyone's favorite coach, but let's take a look at the two teams and break down why Dave Canales' squad is undervalued at home.
It's another year for Bryce Young in Carolina, who has steadily improved each year. The Panthers return plenty of familiar faces on offense, while also getting the added luxury of Jonathan Brooks' return to the lineup. That level of continuity could prove valuable against a Bears defense that remains a question mark.
Chicago made no meaningful upgrades to a unit that posted the second-worst pass rush win rate in the league last season, according to ESPN Analytics. In addition to that, the Bears are also without big offseason signing Coby Bryant, who is expected to miss most of the season with a knee injury.
On the Panthers' side, we're looking at significant defensive improvements in Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd that should boost the unit. The Panthers won five of their eight home games in 2025, all as underdogs.
Don't crown the Bears just yet. The Panthers get the job done in Charlotte.
Denver Broncos +120 (at Kansas City Chiefs)
Patrick Mahomes is back, but what does "back" look like in Week 1 for the star quarterback? Is it MVP form? Remember, Mahomes' availability wasn't always guaranteed for this game, which is something to consider. A torn ACL doesn't seem to impact players the way it used to, but that doesn't mean we won't see the Chiefs' signal-caller moving around less on Monday night.
Most people tend to be cautious when returning from an injury, operating out of fear that it could happen again. Professional athletes are no exception and Week 1 will be the first time that Mahomes can test the knee during a real game.
Aside from the injury concerns, another reality some might be uncomfortable admitting is that the Broncos are the better team.
They have a dominant defense and an upgraded offense following the blockbuster trade for Jaylen Waddle. He should be the key to unlocking Denver's offense and taking it to another level in 2026. Sure, Bo Nix isn't in the Allen and Mahomes tier of quarterbacks, but Sam Darnold wasn't either and he led the Seahawks to a Super Bowl.
Nix's team is great and that is what will make him great on Monday night in Kansas City. The Broncos will make a statement and leave Arrowhead with a 1-0 record.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL Week 1 underdog picks, best bets on Sunday: Texans, Jets are barking
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