Jake Bauers made $2.7 million this season.
By 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 17, the Milwaukee Brewers' National League Championship Series MVP has to decide whether to take $23.15 million for one year or turn it down and test free agency.
He may be one of the last players ever who has to make that call.
Bauers isone of eight free agents who received a qualifying offer Monday, along with Yankees closer David Bednar, Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki and Marlins outfielder Randy Arozarena. Major League Baseball and the players union have both proposed scrapping the system in the next collective bargaining agreement. The current deal expires Dec. 1 and a lockout is expected.
This is not new territory. When the last CBA expired in 2021, 14 players received qualifying
offers. Brandon Belt was the only one who said yes.
Eight of the others had deals in place by the time the owners locked out the players. Four more waited out the 99-day lockout.
What is a qualifying offer in baseball?
A qualifying offer is a one-year contract set at the average salary of baseball's 125 highest-paid players. This year it's a record $23.15 million, up from $22.025 million last year.
A team can only make the offer to a player who spent the whole season with the club and has never received one before.
The player has two choices.
Accept, and he's back with his team for one more season. He can't be traded without his consent until June 15.
Reject, and he becomes a free agent with a draft pick penalty attached. If he signs somewhere else, his old team gets a compensation pick, and his new team gives up at least one of its own.
How much that pick is worth depends on the old team's finances. A revenue-sharing club like the Brewers can get a pick right after the first round if the player signs for $50 million or more. Luxury-tax payers like the Yankees and Cubs only get one after the fourth round.
Most players say no. Since the system began after the 2012 season, only 18 of 157 players accepted before this year. A record four did it last winter.
Who got qualifying offer in 2026?
- Randy Arozarena, Mariners: six straight 20-homers, 20-steal seasons
- Jake Bauers, Brewers: 26 homers and an .874 OPS before his NLCS MVP run
- David Bednar, Yankees: 35 saves and a 2.47 ERA
- Ryan Jeffers, Twins: a 116 OPS+ since 2023, sixth among primary catchers
- Brandon Lowe, Pirates: 35 homers and 96 RBIs
- Adrian Morejon, Padres: the first setup man ever to get a qualifying offer
- Trevor Rogers, Orioles: the only starting pitcher in the group
- Seiya Suzuki, Cubs: a 128 OPS+ over five seasons in Chicago
Eight offers is the fewest since 2023. Teams handed out 14 before the last lockout.
Cubs outfielder Ian Happ and Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm did not get qualifying offers, which was a little surprising. The Yankees decided not to offer one to Jazz Chisholm a year after Trent Grisham accepted their offer and posted just 0.7 WAR in 2026.
Why the 2026 qualifying offer could be the last
Draft-pick compensation was at the center of the 1981 players strike, and the union has pushed to end or limit it in every negotiation since, according to MLB. Players see it as a drag on free agency, because teams think twice about signing someone who costs them a draft pick.
On May 27, the union proposed eliminating it. On June 25, the league agreed.
MLB repeated that offer Tuesday in a proposal that also pushed its salary cap plan back to 2028. The union quickly rejected the package. The biggest fight between the two sides is over the cap.
According to the league, ending the system would remove draft-pick compensation from free agency for the first time since 1976.
Still, nothing is done until there's a deal. Baseball learned that last time.
When the 2021-22 lockout ended, the owners offered to drop the qualifying offer in exchange for an international draft. The two sides gave themselves until July 25, 2022 to agree. The union rejected the draft, and the qualifying offer survived for the rest of the CBA.
None of this changes the rules for this winter. Teams had to make their offers, and players have to answer, before the current CBA expires.
What's less clear is what happens to a player who rejects his offer and is still unsigned when a new deal arrives. If the system is gone by then, it's unclear whether his old team would still get a pick.
How the qualifying offer worked before the 2021 lockout
The 2021 offer was worth $18.4 million. Thirteen players turned it down, and they split into three groups.
Some didn't wait at all. Eduardo Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77 million deal with the Tigers and Noah Syndergaard took one year and $21 million from the Angels before the decision deadline even arrived. Justin Verlander rejected the Astros' offer and agreed to return to Houston the same day on a one-year, $35 million deal with a player option. That contract was finalized during the lockout.
Others beat the clock. The Rangers gaveCorey Seager 10 years and $325 million and Marcus Semien seven years and $175 million. The Mariners gave Robbie Ray five years and $115 million. Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels on Dec. 1. Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers.
Teams committed a single-day record $1.4 billion in contracts on Dec. 1, according to an Associated Press tally. Hours later the owners locked out the players.
Transactions froze from Dec. 2 until March 10, 2022 and the rest of the players with qualifying offers had to wait.
When the market reopened, Freddie Freeman signed with the Dodgers for six years and $162 million. Nick Castellanos got five years and $100 million from the Phillies. Carlos Correa took three years and $105.3 million from the Twins, with opt-outs after each of the first two seasons. Trevor Story signed with the Red Sox for six years and $140 million.
Michael Conforto never signed in 2022. He underwent shoulder surgery and sat out the season.
Because the new CBA kept the qualifying offer, the draft picks still changed hands. The Red Sox used the 79th pick as their compensation for losing Rodriguez, on outfielder Roman Anthony. The Dodgers never got to use theirs for Seager, they lost it when they signed Freeman.
Will free agents sign before the Dec. 1 lockout?
If 2021 is any guide, expect a late rush. Players want contracts and security before the shutdown, and teams want to fill roster holes.
The qualifying offer adds pressure. A player who rejects his offer stays tied to draft compensation until the next amateur draft begins. In 2019, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel waited so long that they signed after the draft, and their old teams got nothing.
This time, no one knows what rules will be in place in 2027.
The last time a lockout loomed, only one player said yes. Brandon Belt took his $18.4 million and stayed in San Francisco.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why MLB's 2026 qualifying offers could be the last ones ever
