The sun doesn't stay out later during this time of year.
It's the reality of the changing seasons and the shortening days. And that's no different in the NFL, where it's getting late already for some teams who came into the year with dreams of playing late into January.
An 0-4 start for the Houston Texans seemingly doomed the franchise that was considered a Super Bowl contender, paving the way for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans to take advantage. But after five weeks, only the Jaguars have positioned themselves for a run at the AFC South crown this season, meaning the door isn't completely shot on the Texans.
A Week 6 clash with
the Jaguars in London is exactly what the doctor ordered if the Texans want to get back into the race. Fresh off its first win, oddsmakers appear to be hedging their bets when it comes to Houston – seemingly identifying this group of four as a two-team race.
Here's a look at the betting odds for each team to capture the division crown.
AFC South odds
All odds listed are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a complete list.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)
- Odds: -380 (Implied probability 79.2% chance)
Jacksonville's biggest competition likely resides in Houston, which means the Jaguars have already created some distance in the division race. A three-game lead heading into Week 6 could evaporate quickly, however. Look no further than Jacksonville's penalty-filled contest against the Philadelphia Eagles in London. The Jags were lucky to escape with a win, showing just how fine the margins are in the NFL. You'd almost certainly look at this team differently if they were 3-2.
Luckily for Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence, that only exists in an alternate timeline. Jacksonville is rightfully considered a heavy favorite in the eyes of the oddsmakers, especially with only five games left against teams with a winning record. That is good enough for the second-easiest remaining schedule in the league heading into Week 6.
The Jags are capable of putting up a lot of points on offense, have an opportunistic defense and a kicker that can knock one through the uprights from a different zip code. If they can play some clean football, then this is Jacksonville's division to lose.
Indianapolis Colts (2-3)
- Odds: +650 (Implied probability 13.3% chance)
The Colts have been far more competitive than some thought heading into the season. Injuries have been a factor for Indy once again and Daniel Jones isn't playing at his pre-Achilles injury level, but that hasn't mattered much. That will need to change if the Colts want to truly compete for a playoff spot, or division title, this season.
As currently constructed, this is a middle of the pack team at best with a real chance to send the New York Jets a top-10 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Houston Texans (1-4)
- Odds: +600 (Implied probability 14.3% chance)
Third in the standings and second in the odds. The Texans might only have one win at this point in the season, but they could easily be 4-1. Three of Houston's losses have come with the opposition taking the lead in the final two minutes, a sign that DeMeco Ryans' bunch is having trouble closing games. However, the more alarming thing would be how the defense has taken a step back. Teams have experienced no resistance when attempting to stage a comeback against the Texans this season, something that would've been unimaginable a season ago.
With the team getting into the win column against the Titans, perhaps that will right the ship. C.J. Stroud is getting some reinforcements on offense after the team made a trade for Marvin Harrison Jr., pairing Stroud's former Ohio State teammate with Nico Collins.
The Texans can get back into the AFC South race with a win over the Jaguars in Week 6. A loss, however, would end any chance of Houston claiming the head-to-head tiebreaker. In other words, it's now or never for the Texans. If you're a believer in this team, just know that the train is leaving the station this week, but the destination is unknown.
Tennessee Titans (0-5)
- Odds: +15000 (Implied probability 0.7% chance)
If the money is really burning a hole in your pocket to the point where you'd consider betting on the Titans to win the AFC South, perhaps this would be a good time to redirect those funds to charity.
Unless the other three teams are suddenly banished from the league, Tennessee won't come anywhere close to finishing in first. Even a 0.7% chance is generous.
How many teams to start 0-4 have made the NFL playoffs?
Only one team in NFL history has been able to overcome an 0-4 start and make the playoffs – the 1992 San Diego Chargers.
The Bolts rattled off wins in 11 of their final 12 games to finish with an 11-5 record. That was also good enough to win the AFC West and a game against the rival Chiefs in the wild-card round.
And it's not like the Chargers had great expectations either. San Diego hadn't been to the playoffs in a decade and put together four straight losing seasons prior to the turnaround in 1992.
Unlike San Diego, Houston does have the weight of expectations, but for good reason. And this isn't completely uncharted territory for the Texans.
Only seven teams in NFL history have started 0-3 (or worse) and made the playoffs. Of those seven, one is the 1992 Chargers and two involve the Texans – who accomplished that feat in 2018 and again in 2025. Considering the roster has many of the same faces, it's not too far fetched to believe they can overcome a slow start once again.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why a win over the Jaguars in London is critical for Texans' after abysmal start
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