A wet Election Day is forecast for much of the middle of the United States, including in Iowa, Kansas and Texas, where competitive midterm races could be affected by voter turnout.
Those heading to the polls from the northcentral U.S. to the Southeast could encounter rain, thunderstorms and, in places, high winds, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center said in an online forecast. The precipitation comes from a moisture-laden weather system, which is bringing weekend rain to California and the Southwest, and is moving east across the U.S. ahead of Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and into Ohio and the Tennessee Valley on Nov. 3, according to the Weather Prediction
Center's forecast. On Election Day, there's a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for parts of the mid- to lower Mississippi Valley including Missouri and Arkansas, as well as into Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, the WPC said.
Thunderstorms, rain and gusty winds on Election Day
Rain and thunderstorms in the Plains on Monday, Nov. 2, may be followed by gusty winds on Election Day. The potential for damaging winds and tornadoes gives way to scattered rain showers and a forecast high of 65 degrees on Tuesday, Nov. 3, the National Weather Service in Topeka, Kansas, said in an X post on Oct. 31.
Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan also will likely have rain, which could affect voters on the way to the polls or waiting outside to vote, Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, said in an online forecast. Major cities likely to have Election Day rain include Minneapolis, Chicago and Kansas City.While some spots may have only scattered showers, others may have several hours of steady rain, he said. To the south, thunderstorms are likely from the Texas and Louisiana coasts north into parts of Missouri and Illinois. "In some cases, thunderstorms could lead to power outages in parts of the south-central region," Sosnowski said.
Heavy rain in the Southwest Sunday to Monday, could also impact Election Day, with possible lingering road closures and high water, he said.
Most of the West, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic including Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, will have a dry Election Day, Sosnowski said.
Wet Election Day forecasts in key states
Iowa
Rain is expected in this state where Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson has a narrow lead in the Senate race against Democratic nominee Josh Turek. Rain will linger through Tuesday, Nov. 3, after possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening on Monday, Nov. 2, according to the National Weather Service. Much of the state will have moderate rainfall on Election Day.
Kansas
Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall faces a tough test from Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton in Kansas, where showers and possible strong winds are forecast to move across the state on Nov. 3, according to AccuWeather, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
Maine
There's a 30% chance of rain on Election Day for much of the state, where five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for re-election against former state Senate president Troy Jackson. Temperatures may reach as high as 61, according to the NWS.
Michigan
In an important contest for control of Congress, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is leading Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate race. On Election Day, there's potential for heavy rainfall in the western part of the state, with rain also forecast for much of the rest of the state and temps in the 60s. Detroit is expected to be partly cloudy, with a chance of rain showers and a predicted high of 71.
Texas
The state is the battleground for another important Senate race, this one between Democrat James Talarico and Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee. Election Day is forecast to bring clearing skies in north and central Texas, showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Ark-La-Tex region and the Houston area, where the high could reach 79.
Widespread precipitation is forecast for Election Day, with the heaviest activity centered over the Ozarks and rain extending across portions of the Great Plains, Midwest, and Texas. pic.twitter.com/B6Ajvk0psB
— VoteHub (@VoteHub) October 29, 2026
Contributing: Joey Garrison, Doyle Rice.
Mike Snider is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on Threads (mikegsnider), Bluesky (@mikegsnider.bsky.social), X (@mikesnider) and email him msnider@usatoday.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Could Election Day weather dampen voter turnout? See where it may rain
