With less than three weeks until the Nov. 3 midterm elections, President Donald Trump remains politically vulnerable across much of the country, posting positive approval ratings in just 10 states as Republicans fight to hold narrow House and Senate majorities.
A new Civiqs state-by-state tracker shows Trump underwater in most states, including several critical battlegrounds, underscoring the challenges facing Republicans as Democrats hold sizable leads on generic congressional ballots. The numbers suggest Trump's standing with voters could play a major role in determining which party controls Congress next year.
According to the tracker, Trump's approval rating remains above water in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South
Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. All backed Trump in the last three presidential elections.
Wyoming remains Trump's strongest state, where his net approval rating stands at +16%. At the other end of the spectrum, neighboring Montana appears evenly split, with 46% of voters approving and 46% disapproving of the president's job performance.
See Trump's approval state by state
Trump's weak numbers arrive as Democrats continue to gain momentum in congressional polling, raising the stakes for Republicans heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
Democrats gain momentum before midterms
Recent polling continues to show Democrats with a clear advantage on generic congressional ballots.
A Cygnal poll released Oct. 13 found Democrats leading Republicans by 9 percentage points. An Economist/YouGov poll released Oct. 14 showed Democrats ahead by 11 points.
If those numbers hold through Election Day, Democrats could regain control of one or both chambers of Congress while putting traditionally Republican-held seats into play.
In Texas, where no Democrat has won statewide office this century, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 2 percentage points in a recent Marist University poll. In Kansas, Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton holds a 3-point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in a recent YouGov survey.
What do polling averages show?
While individual polls vary, major polling averages continue to show Trump deeply underwater with voters, with disapproval ratings approaching or exceeding 60% nationally.
- RealClearPolitics (Oct. 14): 38.6% approve, 59.3% disapprove
- New York Times (Oct. 14): 37% approve, 60% disapprove
- Silver Bulletin (Oct. 14): 37.5% approve, 59.7% disapprove
Whether those ratings translate into electoral losses remains an open question. But with Democrats leading national congressional polling and competitive races emerging in traditionally Republican states, Trump's standing with voters is becoming a central test of Republican strength heading into Election Day.
Fernando Cervantes Jr. is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Reach him at fernando.cervantes@usatodayco.com and follow him on X @fern_cerv_.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump positive in just 10 states before midterms
