President Donald Trump appears to be on a collision course with the Federal Reserve for yet another political fracas about interest rates, just seven weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Trump has long demanded that America's central bank lower interest rates, not based on relevant economic data, but to create a political advantage for a president with a well-established history of damaging our economy
.That history – Trump's frenzied trade wars, his haphazard lack of a plan for his war in Iran, the resulting increases in costs for gasoline and diesel, the trickle-down impacts on prices for everything else – is now a central motivator for voters in the midterms.
Those elections will decide if Republicans retain control of Congress or lose
it to Democrats eager to enforce oversight. That scares Trump as much as the prospect of increased interest rates.
Trump is trying to force the Federal Reserve to bend to his will
The Federal Reserve's board will meet on Sept. 15 and 16 to consider what to do about interest rates. Ahead of that, the traders surveyed for CME Group's FedWatch Tool on Sept. 14 saw a better than 90% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates.
That's because those traders are reading the economic signals. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Sept. 11 reported that the consumer price index increased by 3.4% in the past 12 months, with gas prices driving the increase. And inflation is outpacing paychecks for American workers.
In other words, Trump may be about to get the exact opposite of what he wants. Prepare for a tantrum.
The early rumblings of that inevitable meltdown were heard in a Sept. 4 social media post, when Trump declared, "A STRONG COUNTRY MEANS A LOWER INTEREST RATE – IT’S A BETTER CREDIT … Very simple! We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World, like 'the old days.' "
That was the prelude to the president trying to create leverage with the Fed by threat. Trump said he would stop America from trading with any country that has a trade deficit. His post added that the Fed's board, with new chair Kevin Warsh, "must get smart – BE PATRIOTS for a change."
That social media post came one day after the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis issued a Sept. 3 report that said America's goods and services trade deficit with other countries was $88.6 billion in July, because we imported $399.3 billion and exported $310.7 billion.
The deficit was a $17.4 billion increase from June.
America had trade deficits in 2025 with 97 countries, according to The Motley Fool.
Trump repeated his trade deficit threat on Sept. 13, telling reporters that he would halt trading with "some nations" and that it "will take place over a period of time."
The vagueness in that threat is intentional. This isn't about foreign trade. It's about telling the Fed that Trump is willing to create even more economic chaos in an expanded trade war if he does not get what he wants.
Voters have started taking notice of Trump's chaotic approach
Trump plans these threats the same way he planned for war in Iran – there is no plan.
On the same day that Trump repeated his threat, Kevin Hassett, his director for the National Economic Council, told CNN that "it's pretty important for the Fed to just leave things alone ahead of an election to preserve its independence."
Hassett also said Trump would "accept" it if the Fed increased interest rates, while noting that he wants the rates reduced.
So Trump threatens an international trade war if he doesn't get a reduction in interest rates on the same day that his top economic adviser said the Fed should take no action this close to an election. Does that sound like a plan to you?
Voters are consumers. And consumers are taking notice.
The latest University of Michigan Survey of Consumers showed both sentiments for Democrats and Republicans dropping from August to September.
"Year-ahead expectations for both personal finances and business conditions plunged," that report said. "With a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come."
Why else would Trump be trying to distract American voters with a promise of a $5,000 check if Republicans retain control of Congress in the midterms? Spoiler alert: Congress will never sign off on that.
Trump doesn't have a plan for $5,000 checks, just like he has no plan for trade wars with our allies or an actual war with Iran.
Need more proof? Economists note that giving every eligible American adult a $5,000 check – which would add $1.3 trillion to the federal deficit – could increase inflation, creating a need for higher interest rates.
Again, this is the exact opposite of what Trump claims to want. And he's the one advocating for it. Because he has no plans for any of this.
Follow USA TODAY columnist Chris Brennan on Bluesky, @bychrisbrennan.bsky.social, and on X, @ByChrisBrennan. Sign up for his weekly newsletter, Translating Politics, here.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump is learning he can't bully Fed into lower interest rates | Opinion
