Every NFL season since 1990 has featured at least four teams that missed the playoffs the previous year bouncing back to reach the postseason.
You can attribute that annual turnover to any number of things.
Roster movement. Coaching changes. Good drafts. Better injury luck. Schedule difficulty. It’s all part of the equation.
Parity is part of what makes the NFL great.
Even fans of the Dolphins, Jets or Browns can believe their team has a chance when everyone is still 0-0. Not everybody needs to go worst-to-first like last year’s Patriots and Bears. Wild Card spots count, too.
Last year’s AFC playoff field included the Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Steelers, Texans, Bills and Chargers ― while the NFC featured the Seahawks, Bears, Eagles, Panthers, Rams,
49ers and Packers.
Little more than a glance is required to see some notable clubs missing.
The Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals and Lions all fell short for a range of reasons, many of them related to injuries.
Kansas City and Detroit were the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences in 2024, each winning 15 regular-season games, only to watch the playoffs from home a year later.
Their absences helped pave the way for teams like the eventual champion Seahawks and division-winning Bears, Panthers, Patriots and Jaguars to ascend.
Most of those teams experienced remarkable turnarounds.
So, what now?
Last year, six teams crashed the playoff party after missing out the season before.
I’m predicting another six-for-six swap in 2026.
Who’s in?
Baltimore Ravens (-390 to make the playoffs on DraftKings)
The Ravens are among the Super Bowl favorites for a reason.
With a new head coach in Jesse Minter and longtime leader John Harbaugh gone, there’s even more pressure on Lamar Jackson to show he’s worthy of his MVP-winning reputation and contract.
Fresh off their first postseason absence since 2021, the Ravens haven’t missed the playoffs in consecutive years since Jackson arrived, and the AFC North is wide open for the taking.
Jackson just needs to stay healthy.
The two-time MVP helped Baltimore recover from a disastrous 1-5 start last season and now gets one of the softer schedules in football.
Some defensive improvement would go a long way, too.
There’s a reason you’re laying nearly four bucks to win one on Baltimore simply reaching the postseason.
This is the least adventurous prediction on the board.
Cincinnati Bengals (-200)
What does Joe Burrow do after an incomplete season?
He wins Comeback Player of the Year.
Burrow already has a pair of those honors ― possibly with a third on deck — but the larger point is that Cincinnati’s offense should be dynamic as long as its quarterback is healthy.
Burrow. Ja’Marr Chase. Tee Higgins. Chase Brown.
Good luck.
The Bengals also draw one of the NFL’s easier schedules after management spent the offseason trying to address a defense that has repeatedly sabotaged one of the league’s most talented offenses.
Cincinnati has somehow missed the playoffs three consecutive years.
Make it a double-digit-win season and end the drought.
Dallas Cowboys (-105)
The NFC East is balanced.
Aside from maybe the Giants, any team can win this division, especially after the Eagles lost A.J. Brown.
For me, Dallas is that team.
The Cowboys are loaded offensively, and the defense has shown promise, even in the wake of the Micah Parsons trade.
If that side of the football is merely serviceable under new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, Dak Prescott and one of the league’s best receiving duos in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens should continue to light up the scoreboard, particularly inside Jerry’s World.
Dallas doesn’t need to become a defensive juggernaut.
Give this offense enough stops and the Cowboys will return to the postseason.
Detroit Lions (-220)
The Lions have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and perhaps the league’s most explosive offense.
Following back-to-back division titles, Detroit took a step back last season after losing both coordinators, putting more responsibility on Dan Campbell’s shoulders.
There’s simply too much talent for this team to fall short again, even in a stacked NFC North.
Jahmyr Gibbs is in line for a monster season and is the rightful favorite for Offensive Player of the Year.
Did I mention Amon-Ra St. Brown?
Detroit also had miserable fumble luck last season, recovering only 29% of loose balls, the worst rate in the NFL.
We saw glimpses of the Lions’ promise before their late-season collapse.
This time, we’ll get the whole package.
Kansas City Chiefs (-205)
Patrick Mahomes is healthy — we think.
Kenneth Walker III gives the Chiefs the most dangerous backfield threat they’ve had in years.
And Andy Reid has never had consecutive losing seasons in 27 years as an NFL head coach.
This roster is far from perfect, and Kansas City may have to settle for a Wild Card spot in a difficult AFC West, but so long as Mahomes even somewhat resembles the quarterback he was before suffering last year’s torn ACL, this will be a playoff team.
Last year’s postseason absence was Kansas City’s first since 2014.
That remarkable stretch included five trips to the Super Bowl and nine consecutive division championships.
One injury-ravaged season isn’t enough to convince me the NFL’s defining franchise of the past decade is suddenly finished.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+130)
Someone has to win the NFC South.
The Tyler Shough-led Saints are the popular choice to emerge from the division.
I’m taking Tampa Bay.
Baker Mayfield is furiously motivated by the Bucs not giving their franchise quarterback a new contract, and that’s the kind of narrative I’m happy to support.
Mayfield’s prove-it season should be one to watch, especially as Emeka Egbuka continues to develop into one of the league’s better young receivers.
Mike Evans is gone — and that’s certainly a hit ― but Todd Bowles is battling for his job, and Mayfield is fighting for respect after showing MVP-caliber stretches in 2025.
I’m here for it.
This team won the division four consecutive years before last season and has missed the postseason just once since 2020.
Last year’s second-half collapse looks more like an outlier than the beginning of a trend.
Who’s out?
Carolina Panthers (-270 to miss the playoffs)
The NFC South will only have one playoff representative.
It won’t be Carolina.
The Panthers backed into last year’s postseason with an 8-9 record after winning a three-way tiebreaker despite being outscored by 69 points.
This division is terrible.
This team is mediocre.
Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and New Orleans will continue beating up on one another until someone emerges.
The Panthers have some talent, but not enough to convince me last year’s playoff appearance was anything more than the product of a terrible division.
Now they get a first-place schedule.
Regression is coming.
Denver Broncos (+118)
The AFC West is loaded.
The Chargers are live to finish in the top spot, the Chiefs are bound to return to a familiar playoff position, and even the Raiders look like they may be competitive.
It feels strange dismissing a team that finished with the AFC’s top seed last season, but we just watched that happen twice when the Chiefs and Lions missed last year’s tournament.
The Broncos are good, but they aren’t 14-wins-every-year good. A dozen of Denver’s victories came in comeback fashion, an NFL single-season record.
That is a whole lot of magic to ask a team to reproduce.
Now the Broncos get the juggernaut NFC West on their schedule while Bo Nix returns from the ankle injury that ended his season.
Somebody good is getting squeezed out of the AFC.
For me, it’s Denver.
Green Bay Packers (+122)
The NFC North is tough.
Really tough.
Plenty of people believe the Bears will be the team that regresses, but I don’t see it. Caleb Williams is ascending, and Chicago is dynamic offensively.
Green Bay? Not as much.
Jordan Love is good, but Romeo Doubs departed in the offseason, many of the pass-catchers have injury histories, Josh Jacobs is facing potential league discipline and the backfield lacks proven depth behind him.
Then there’s Micah Parsons. He's incredible, so much so that we watched Green Bay’s defense fall apart after he got injured last season.
The team couldn't win a game.
Now the Packers are preparing to open the season without him.
In a division where Detroit and Chicago can both win double-digit games, Green Bay may not have enough margin for error to survive a slow start.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-125)
Liam Coen was a Coach of the Year candidate. Trevor Lawrence had a career year. The offense started humming when chain-mover Jakobi Meyers arrived.
And Jacksonville jumped from four wins to 13.
That’s precisely why I’m skeptical.
The AFC is stronger than it was last year, the Jaguars will play a demanding first-place schedule and the team did little in the offseason to meaningfully improve its roster. Jacksonville also went 6-3 in one-score games.
Maybe Lawrence has permanently elevated his game, and Coen has built an annual contender. Or maybe a team that improved by nine wins in one season is due to give a few of them back.
I’ll take the latter.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-168)
The Ravens nearly stole the AFC North from Pittsburgh in Week 18 last season.
Now Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are healthy, and Baltimore and Cincinnati are both coming for the Steelers and their aging quarterback.
Sure, Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy spent many years together in Green Bay. But they’re also trying to recreate that magic with Rodgers about to turn 43.
There’s only so much Pittsburgh will be able to do after barely sneaking into the postseason last winter, particularly in a division that should be dramatically better around it.
And Mike Tomlin’s magic of avoiding losing seasons is no longer around to save them.
Get ready for Pittsburgh’s first losing season in decades. Not exactly the farewell tour Rodgers had in mind.
Seattle Seahawks (+184)
OK, here’s the spicy one.
Seattle is the defending Super Bowl champion and one of the favorites to hoist another Lombardi Trophy.
I’m predicting the Seahawks miss the playoffs entirely.
That sounds ridiculous until you remember how quickly things change in the NFL.
As mentioned, the Lions were a 15-win No. 1 seed in 2024 and missed the postseason the following year after losing both coordinators.
Now Seattle loses offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to Las Vegas after he helped Sam Darnold produce the best football of his career. Kubiak is a quarterback whisperer, and Darnold will no longer have him around to continue nurturing the quarterback’s rapport with Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Kenneth Walker III is gone, too, putting immediate pressure on rookie Jadarian Price to become the Seahawks’ lead back.
The defense is incredible. The roster is deep. There’s a reason Seattle just won the Lombardi trophy.
But repeating a 14-win season is a massive ask, especially in an NFC West that features the Rams and 49ers, and in a conference balanced enough to oust a very good football team.
Maybe predicting the defending champs to go from a parade to their couches in one year makes me an idiot.
But every list needs a swing.
Seattle is mine.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Predicting which NFL teams will make or miss the playoffs in 2026
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