It's no secret that Vice President JD Vance wants to be president in 2028. His first big test on the road to the White House comes Election Day, in his home state of Ohio.
The midterm elections are a referendum on President Donald Trump's second term – and, in part, on Vance.
The vice president has thrown himself into Ohio's races, closing out the campaign on the eve of Election Day with a rally outside Toledo. How Republicans fare there Nov. 3 is a preview of how Vance might perform two years from now.
Vance has campaigned in Ohio for Republicans – and for himself
Ohio has both a contentious governor's race and a contentious Senate race. Vance has been a fixture in both, rallying for the Republican ticket across the state.
Republicans’ Ohio push got harder after a blunder by their gubernatorial nominee, Vivek Ramaswamy. His campaign ran an ad featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton, in which she calls her daughter a liar. The estrangement is no mystery: Acton’s mother lost custody of her children after their stepfather was indicted on a charge of raping Acton when she was 12.
The ad drew criticism from both parties, including from Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and Sen. Jon Husted, who said he would not have run it. But the vice president wasn't among the critics. Vance told fellow Republicans to "stop whining" about an advertisement and go win the race.
Amid the fallout, a private GOP poll obtained by Axios showed Acton ahead by 8 percentage points, up from 2 points in the same survey earlier in October, before the ad aired. The latest Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network poll had Acton up 4 points.
Either way, Republicans head into Election Day scrambling to hold the governor's office in a state Trump won with 55% of the vote in 2024.
The Senate race is just as tight. The Suffolk/USA TODAY poll found former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Husted 46.6% to 43.8%. The seat, Vance's old one, could decide control of the Senate, and with it how Trump's final two years in office unfold.
Vance spent the campaign's final stretch trying to drag two trailing Republicans across the finish line, but he wasn't there only as a party man. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio. And a presidential hopeful who can't deliver his own state, whether in a midterm or two years later, gives his primary rivals an easy line of attack.
GOP midterm results may foreshadow Vance's struggles in 2028
Many assume Vace has a built-in advantage at home. But his pull could be weaker than it looks. A lot of people have forgotten how badly Vance underperformed in his 2022 Senate race. He won 53.3% of the vote, while Gov. DeWine, on the same ballot, won reelection with 62.8%.
In a banner year for Ohio Republicans, Vance beat Democrat Tim Ryan by 6.6 percentage points. DeWine took it by 25.6.
Since then, Vance has risen to the vice presidency but done little else to improve his standing. The job has raised his profile. It has also handcuffed him to a deeply unpopular president.
Trump's second term has dragged down Republican candidates across the country, and Ohio is no exception.
Just 43% of the state's likely voters approve of the job the president's doing, while 55% disapprove, according to a Marist Poll taken in mid-October. Vance will have to account for that record from now until 2028.
The economy is the top concern of Ohio voters, and Trump's handling of it is holding Republicans back. In the Marist Poll, 44% of likely voters said their family finances had gotten worse over the past year. If Ohio Republicans can't overcome the president's record today, Vance will have an even harder time distancing himself from it.
Nov. 3 results will offer an early read on how a Vance campaign might hold up in his home state – and in the Midwestern battlegrounds any Republican presidential nominee needs. If Republicans hang on in Ohio's tight races, Vance might have a path to victory. If Trump's record drags them down and Vance's own state starts to look shaky, Republicans might want to look elsewhere.
Dace Potas, a law student, is an opinion columnist for USA TODAY. Follow him on X: @DacePotas
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: If Vance can't deliver Ohio, his 2028 bid is in trouble | Opinion
