Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters came to New Hampshire on Sept. 13 with a pledge: He will invest "whatever it takes" to win the U.S. Senate race between former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas.
“We think these are some of our best pickup opportunities in the entire country, and so we’re willing to make the investment,” Gruters said at the state’s GOP unity breakfast. “That’s why I’m here. That’s why we’re rallying the troops.”
New Hampshire might not be the first state that comes to mind when thinking of a GOP pickup opportunity. After all, the state has not had a Republican senator in nearly a decade, nor has it voted for a Republican in a presidential election since 2000.
But Republicans are investing
millions in the race this year in the historically purple state. Polls are showing a tight margin, and some national forecasters and pundits are joining the RNC in thinking Republicans have a chance of flipping the seat, currently held by retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, thanks in part to the popularity of the Sununu family name.
Still, Sununu will have to contend with an unfavorable national environment as President Donald Trump faces record-low approval ratings.
Holding the seat is crucial to Democrats’ hopes of flipping the U.S. Senate, which is narrowly controlled by Republicans 53-47. If Republicans win, they score a needed cushion in a year when Democrats are likely to gain ground.
Can Republicans flip the NH Senate seat?
If any Republican could flip the New Hampshire Senate seat, it's Sununu. He is part of a popular political family in the state: his father, John H. Sununu, and brother, Chris Sununu, served three and four terms as governor, respectively, by winning bipartisan support.
Polls have shown a single-digit margin between Sununu and Pappas. While most polls have found Pappas with the slight edge, Sununu was ahead by two percentage points in a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll from Aug. 26 and by one point in a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll from Sept. 2. The latter is a Republican-sponsored poll, but Fabrizio is a “respected” pollster, according New Hampshire Democratic operative Steve Marchand.
Another UNH poll released Sept. 24 found that Pappas was ahead by eight points, but UNH Survey Center Director Andrew Smith said that it’s still a “statistical tie” when taking into account the percentages for undecided voters and unknown candidates.
The Cook Political Report recently changed their rating of the race from “Lean D” to “Toss-up,” in another indication of the closeness of the race.
Sununu has also won this seat before, defeating then-Gov. Shaheen in 2002 to serve one term before Shaheen defeated him in 2008.
“Republicans can absolutely flip this seat,” RNC spokesperson Kristen Cianci told USA TODAY. “Pappas and Sununu are neck and neck in the polls and the race rating just changed from a Lean D to a Toss Up. Democrats nominated a weak candidate with a dismal record who is failing right out of the gate. John Sununu has the vision, experience, and energy to flip this seat and send Chris Pappas packing.”
The shift toward Republicans in New Hampshire is the opposite of trends being seen in most other states. Maine, Georgia and North Carolina, for example, have seen their races move toward Democrats.
“Why is New Hampshire different? I think it comes down to the candidates and also the nature of the state. New Hampshire leans Democratic, and this ought to be a Democratic year, but the Sununu family has done extremely well in elections in New Hampshire,” Smith said. “Sununu is well known. He's a former senator himself. Pappas is not as well known outside of his district as Sununu is, so it's set up I think to be a pretty close race between two big candidates.”
In a statement, Sununu’s campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf said that Sununu will be an “independent voice in the Senate,” while Pappas “votes the party line and is making life more expensive for Granite Staters.”
"Since the launch of this campaign, John Sununu has made clear that he is laser-focused on affordability,” Schrimpf said.
While Pappas has raised more than Sununu – he has $4.25 million cash on hand compared to Sununu’s $3 million, according to campaign finance reports – national Republicans have been pouring money into the race. The Senate Leadership Fund announced that it would be investing $17 million for Sununu in April, an amount they say is the largest commitment in the state in a decade, and Republican groups have reserved $25 million in advertising, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
Challenges facing Sununu
Still, there are major headwinds against Sununu, perhaps the biggest of all being his party’s leader.
The president’s party typically loses ground in midterm elections, especially when the president has low approval ratings. An average of approval ratings from the New York Times shows that Trump’s approval as of Sept. 23 was 37%.
Sununu has long had a complicated relationship with Trump: In 2024, he called Trump a “loser” in a Union Leader opinion article. Yet Trump has endorsed Sununu, and with Trump’s approval rating hitting an all-time low of 32% in New Hampshire, according to a Sep. 23 poll from UNH, it’s unclear whether Sununu can outrun the issue.
Tying Sununu to Trump has been one of Pappas’s main lines of attack.
“I think it was last week where John Sununu tried to claim that he had never met the guy, but yet he stands for Trump's reckless policies, from the war in Iran to higher gas prices to health care cuts to tariffs, that New Hampshire voters are reacting against,” Pappas said in a Sept. 23 interview with USA TODAY.
Recent polls have also shown Democrats leading on issues like affordability. A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll from Aug. 20 showed that 52% of likely New Hampshire voters would choose a Democrat for Congress compared to 41% for Republicans, and that Republicans trail Democrats 46%-39% for trust on economic issues. A national Economist/YouGov poll released Sept. 22 found Democrats with a 14-point advantage over the GOP in a generic congressional ballot.
New Hampshire’s primary also showed "incredible Democratic energy," Saint Anselm College Survey Center founder Neil Levesque said. While the New Hampshire secretary of state's office predicted 103,024 Democrats and 145,751 Republicans would turn out in the state’s primary, the final numbers were almost flipped: 155,634 Democrats and 113,605 Republicans cast a ballot on Sept. 8. On top of these trends, Pappas himself has proven to be a strong candidate, often outperforming his party to win reelection four times in the historically purple First District, which covers the southeastern half of the state.
Republicans have been fighting back, spending more on aired advertisements than Democrats. One ad from the Republican Senate Leadership Fund accuses Pappas of not properly disclosing his relationship with his now-husband, who was an Amazon lobbyist. The Pappas campaign told WMUR in 2020 that House Ethics Committee guidance said members of Congress are not required to disclose who they are dating.
Levesque, whose poll showed Pappas up by seven points, said he doesn’t believe that the data corresponds to the idea that the race is neck and neck.
“Sununu, to his credit, has localized the race. His ads, in my opinion, are very good and effective. He certainly knows the issues and how to campaign, so he's doing everything right,” Levesque said. “But nationally, the brand of Republican is not great if you look at the data, and so therefore I think it's a tough situation.”
New Hampshire is no stranger to close elections: Vice President Kamala Harris beat Trump by less than 3 percentage points in 2024, and Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-NH, defeated current Gov. Kelly Ayotte by just over 1,000 votes in 2016.
Many recent polls are showing a tight race, and both candidates and parties have been backing that idea. Smith said that the race has been within a few percentage points since UNH started measuring a year ago. But the general election is still a month away, and things could change.
“Look, this race has been within the margin of error in all the polling over the last year, and New Hampshire is a very purple state,” Pappas said. “But I trust the voters of New Hampshire.”
National figures have been parading through the state on behalf of both candidates in yet another showing of the race’s stakes. On Sept. 18, Sen. Rick Scott, R-Florida, told reporters at a Republican fundraising dinner that New Hampshire is the GOP’s "best flip opportunity."
That’s probably the case, Smith said, but if so, it suggests a tough midterm season ahead for the GOP. New Hampshire may be Republicans’ only glimmer of hope.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Could Republicans flip New Hampshire Senate seat? Sununu's got a shot
