Last week was arguably our most accurate of the season, as we hit on Jacoby Brissett, D'Andre Swift and Malik Nabers, while correctly benching Tyler Shough and Tony Pollard.
The pickings are slimmer this week with four teams on bye, but that actually makes matchup analysis more impactful. Lesser players are more matchup-dependent than the stars.
Every week, I'll continue to identify and write up players that are not obviously starts or sits. Regardless of matchup, you're starting someone like Derrick Henry every week, so I try to go a few layers deeper than your early-round fantasy studs.
Note: Projections refer to player props in the betting and prediction markets, which are a valuable reference tool for anyone playing fantasy football.
Best Week 6 fantasy football matchups
QB Kirk Cousins vs. the Bills
The Bills
have allowed more than 20 fantasy points to every quarterback not engaged to Madison Beer this season (hello, Justin Herbert). The combination of a shaky pass defense and Josh Allen-led offense leads to fantasy success for opposing quarterbacks.
Even after adjusting for the fact that the Bills have already faced strong fantasy options like Drake Maye and Jared Goff, the Buffalo is still allowing five more fantasy points to opposing passers than expected.
Cousins himself has thrown for at least 240 yards or multiple touchdowns in every game this season, and betting markets currently project 250 passing yards and two passing touchdowns for Cousins on Sunday.
The game total is a hefty 53.5 points, we get the dome environment in Las Vegas, and the Bills are on a short week after a Monday night thriller against the Rams. Cousins is the premier streaming quarterback in Week 6 to help get you through the byes.
RB Tony Pollard at the Colts
I've been harsh toward Pollard this year, as he's frequently found himself on the opposite side of my matchups column. This week, the matchup against the Colts is tasty enough to trust the Titans runner.
Last week, we saw Tyjae Spears erupt in PPR formats after catching all nine of his targets for 28 yards. However, that's disastrous efficiency in *real* football. Pollard ran about 60% as many routes as Spears last week and wasn't targeted. But after such a poor showing in Week 5 from Spears, I'd expect a few of those targets to start heading Pollard's way again.
Both on the ground and through the air, Indianapolis has been a favorable matchup to opposing running backs when looking at fantasy points allowed, adjusted by opponents faced. And Pollard's total yards prop of 64.5 yards reflects this. With four teams on bye, Pollard is a fantasy RB2 in Week 6.
WR Rome Odunze at the Falcons
Rome Odunze hasn't been as bad as you think this year, seriously. He's had at least 40 yards in each game and is on pace for 925 yards overall. Odunze's had at least six targets each of his past three games, too.
This week, Odunze gets Caleb Williams back, which should immediately elevate the entire Bears offense. The 51.5 point game total reflects this optimism, as the Falcons' dome is also conducive to passing.
The Falcons defense has also really struggled to defend receivers on the outside, allowing the third-most outside yards this season. Odunze has ran roughly three in four of his routes on the outside and is a fringe top-24 fantasy wideout in Week 6 given the matchup.
TE Dalton Kincaid at the Raiders
Through two weeks, Kincaid was on pace for 102 receptions, 1,913 yards and nine touchdowns. The last three games, Kincaid has four total catches for 52 scoreless yards. It's been the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde season so far for the tight end, but Week 6 should be a get-right game.
Last week's one catch effort is largely forgivable, as Josh Allen only attempted 19 passes in a run-heavy approach. After two James Cook fumbles (one lost) in that game, it's reasonable to expect more pass attempts from the Bills in Week 6.
Even after adjusting for opponents faced, the Raiders allow nearly six more fantasy points per game than expected. Kincaid went through two difficult matchups followed by a game where the Bills simply never stopped running. Kincaid is once again a top-eight fantasy option this week in a great matchup.
Worst Week 6 fantasy football matchups
RB Bhayshul Tuten vs. the Texans
Bhayshul Tuten is on almost every analyst's buy low list (mine included) after reaching just 90 total yards in three straight scoreless games. He's averaged 20 touches per game during this time, too.
However, we really need to temper expectations with the Texans matchup, as he's just a low-end fantasy RB2 this week. Tuten managers may very well have two better options to start at running back in Week 6.
Diving deeper, the Jaguars just lost right tackle Anton Harrison to knee surgery, and he's been an above average presence on their offensive line this season. Despite the Texans' perceived defensive woes this year, they've still shut down the running back position overall. And it's hard to see how a banged up Jaguars line can contain the Texans' disruptive front, led by Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Will Anderson.
The Texans have already held James Cook to under 60 rushing yards, and recently held Jonathan Taylor to under three yards per carry. The only running back to reach 10 fantasy points against the Texans was Javonte Williams, who got there by scoring three touchdowns.
Tuten even has lower odds to score a touchdown than Texans back Woody Marks, reflecting the market's overall pessimism in Week 6.
Michael Wilson at the Rams
This is the scariest fade I've written up so far this season, but they don't pay me the big bucks to take the easy way out.
Wilson has had at least seven targets in every game, but he's really only had two strong fantasy performances to-date. The matchup against the Rams will be his toughest test yet, as they boast the NFL's best cornerback duo in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
No outside receiver has crested 50 receiving yards against the Rams this season and the only guy to top 50 yards was slot receiver Khalil Shakir last week, thanks to a late broken play. The game total of 51.5 is also deceiving, as the Cardinals are still projected to score less than 20 points due to being comical 12.5 point underdogs. Wilson's touchdown odds give him an uninspiring one in three chance to reach paydirt on Sunday.
To those expecting garbage time, the Cardinals' run defense is completely broken. Expect the duo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to kill clock, as Arizona's defense presents the sixth-best rushing matchup of the week.
Everything is working against Michael Wilson this week, so think of him as a low-end fantasy WR2. Wilson managers could very well have two better receiver options for Week 6.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 6 best and worst fantasy football matchups for Week 6
