As the crow flies, Los Angeles is about a thousand miles due west of Muleshoe, Texas.
A thousand miles of separation, but worlds apart.
Difficult though it is to imagine anyone who lives in a palatial oceanfront property being miserable, Muleshoe native turned Southern California coach Lincoln Riley looks miserable.
Maybe, it’s all those cross-country flights for Big Ten road games that Riley didn’t plan on when he left Oklahoma for USC. Or, he just misses coaching in the conference he used to dominate. Or, losing more frequently than he ever did at Oklahoma is just miserable.
Riley signed up for Pac-12 football.
He’s not cut out for Big Ten football.
We know he thrives in Big 12 football.
Who says you can’t go home?
OK, so the Baylor Bears and Waco, Texas, aren’t home, but they’re a lot closer to Muleshoe — literally, and figuratively — than L.A.
So, if Mama Lone Star calls, why shouldn’t Riley listen?
Especially, considering his alternative is staying at a job where he looks despondent, where his program lacks momentum, and where his career is in a state of retreat.
Reach for that restart button, while he still can, and head home to Texas, if Baylor would have him.
Otherwise, Riley is just coaching for the buyout, working for a boss who didn’t hire him. And, massive though the buyout check would be, Riley is only 43 years old, and getting fired typically doesn’t do wonders for one’s career.
Lane Kiffin reignited after USC fired him at an airport, but not before he spent years at jobs that equated to coaching rehabilitation. Clay Helton’s career never recovered post-USC. He remains in Sun Belt purgatory. Ask Jimbo Fisher or Brian Kelly how quickly a coach’s career can spiral from leading a mega brand to sitting on a TV set.
Riley would be bad TV working in the pundit business, so he better stick to coaching, even if it means backpedaling to the Big 12.
What you call retreat, I call staying ahead of the firing posse, and restarting the clock.
If Lincoln Riley stays at USC, it'll end in a firing
In a coach’s career trajectory, one step backward beats a firing, and a firing is where this is headed if Riley stays at USC. Maybe the ax drops in a week, maybe in a month, maybe next year, but the writing’s on the wall.
Show’s over, folks.
Riley wasn’t the first person to head to L.A. chasing a dream under visions of grandeur, and he won’t be the last, but Hollywood ain’t for everyone.
Sometimes, you’ve gotta know when to admit failure, pack it up, and head home.
As former USC wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson put it after USC got trounced by Wisconsin, this “just ain’t working out,” and more Big Ten losses are coming.
Perhaps, this could’ve gone differently for Riley if USC had stayed in the Pac-12. He took the Trojans to the Pac-12 championship game in his first season and finished one win short of a playoff bid.
That seems like a lifetime ago, and a thousand frowns ago.
Whatever lightning Riley had stoppered in a bottle at USC escaped around the time Caleb Williams left for the NFL and the Trojans left for the Big Ten.
A Baylor lifeline would parachute Riley back in his native state. It would mean a return to the conference Riley ruled as the coach at Oklahoma and played in as a Texas Tech backup quarterback, before he became a student assistant under Mike Leach. The Air Raid concepts Riley understands so well are proven to work in the Big 12.
Heck, if Oklahoma hadn’t signed up for the SEC — how’s that working out, Sooners? — perhaps Riley would’ve never left.
Lincoln Riley needs an out. Baylor needs a coach. And Big 12 is home
The critics would say Riley leaving USC would be an admission of failure, but here’s a different spin to it: The 24-team playoff appears to be just around the corner. And there’s no reason a coach with Texas roots, who understands what wins in the Big 12, couldn’t position Baylor as an annual contender for the super-sized playoff.
For USC, Riley leaving for Baylor would be an ideal scenario. His bosses ought to email his resume for him. Anything to get out of this contract with Riley that’s got five years left on it and, more importantly, a beaucoup-bucks buyout attached to it. If Riley wants out, USC should help him pack.
As for Baylor, it would need to seriously evaluate whether Riley’s USC struggles are reflective of him being a bad fit for USC and the Big Ten, and whether it believes he’d still bring the heat in the Big 12. Programs like UCLA and Kentucky are thriving with lesser-known coaches they nabbed on their way up. Riley wouldn’t fit that mold. New Mexico’s Jason Eck would.
It’s fair to question whether Riley can ever rekindle the spark he experienced in his first few Oklahoma seasons after he inherited a hot rod from Bob Stoops.
Baylor tried the defensive mastermind with Dave Aranda. Aranda lost as often as he won, so Baylor finally fired him.
Baylor needs some offense, and Riley needs to get out of the conference of rock fights, because he's the one getting pelted with rocks. His career is going to be smashed to bits, if he doesn’t get out of the Big Ten soon.
Riley could wait for USC to fire him and collect the buyout check, and he’d have enough money to purchase his own island, or a buy a second Palos Verdes mansion.
Or, he could just go home.
Home is in Texas, and it’s in the Big 12.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Listen to his podcast, "College Football Unfiltered." Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Lincoln Riley could make USC football fire him. Or, he could just cut and run
