Election night was nothing short of a massacre for Republicans. Americans flatly rejected President Donald Trump's second term, handing Democrats commanding majorities in both the House and the Senate. Democrats even won statewide in Republican strongholds like Texas, Kansas and South Carolina.
The immediate impact is that the rest of Trump's second term becomes a headache for Republicans. Democrats will open investigations in the House, block nominations in the Senate and ride the momentum into their campaign to retake the White House in 2028.
But the long-run impact for Republicans is even more interesting. The 2028 election cycle has begun, and the midterm results have upended the GOP primary before anyone has even declared for the presidential
race.
Trump's second term is poisonous for Republicans
Anyone tied to Trump's second term is going to see their electoral odds poisoned. Tariffs, the war with Iran, immigration enforcement and the administration's other failures are going to haunt many of 2028's most likely candidates.
Vice President JD Vance is the one most wounded by the Nov. 3 results.
Vance entered Election Day as the 2028 favorite, and betting markets still rank him there, even after his odds of winning the Republican presidential nomination on Kalshi fell from 35% on Nov. 1 to about 30% on Nov. 4. But it's becoming increasingly hard to see his path to victory in a general election – and maybe even in the Republican primary.
The vice president will be endlessly tied to this administration's failures. He faces an impossible choice: publicly repudiate his boss’ policies or own everything this administration has done. After Nov. 3 results, his general election prospects are dead in the water.
Vance is already trying to break with the president on the war, writing on Nov. 4, "The reason we lost is the war." But he'll have a hard time convincing voters they can trust him while he's still working inside the administration.
Trump's endorsement is a powerful tool in a primary, and Vance seems the most likely to get it. Trump-backed candidates won 96% of their Republican primaries this cycle – but just 73% of their general elections so far.
Vance's primary odds remain strong, but his general election odds mean nominating him would be political suicide for Republicans. If Republicans were smart, Vance's campaign would be dead on arrival, but I don't think we're so lucky.
The other likely successor to Trump is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is in the best position – and has the talent – to break with Trump ideologically without alienating the base. But the policy he's most tied to is the Iran war. Rubio, who also serves as Trump's national security adviser, has been one of its loudest defenders, and even Trump and Vance now blame the war for the GOP's midterm losses.
Republicans need to forge a new path ahead of 2028
The Trump era finally looks like it's coming to a close. Now Republicans need to do what they should have done in 2016, or any time since: Chart a new direction away from Trump.
One name that comes to mind is Ron DeSantis.
The Florida governor, who is about to have a lot of free time thanks to term limits, has positioned himself as well as any established candidate heading into 2028. His odds of securing the GOP presidential nomination tripled after the midterms' bloodbath, likely because he has kept his distance from the administration, breaking with Trump over the Iran war on the eve of the election while running his home state effectively.
DeSantis positioned himself well in 2024, but Trump's political comeback, campaign staffing errors and Nikki Haley splitting the anti-Trump vote were too much for him to overcome. The qualities that made DeSantis a strong contender then still hold, and he remains a strong choice to emerge from the ashes of the Republican coalition and build a new form of conservative governance.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp is another conservative who has shown an ability to win despite standing up to the president. Kemp refused to help Trump overturn Georgia's 2020 election results, then beat Trump's handpicked challenger in the 2022 primary by 50 points.
Governors like Kemp and DeSantis are the best place for Republicans to look for candidates with executive experience who are insulated from the administration.
Otherwise, the Republican Party is shaping up for a new voice to emerge and reconcile the MAGA and conservative wings of the party. What's certain, even at this early point, is that Republicans need to find a new direction, or they will keep suffering losses until they move past Trump.
Dace Potas, a law student, is an opinion columnist for USA TODAY. Follow him on X: @DacePotas
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Blue wave just sunk JD Vance's 2028 presidential dreams | Opinion
