Manchester United is on a rough run of form, but the numbers suggest there could be some value in backing the Red Devils against Leeds on Sunday, Oct. 18.
The visitors travel to Elland Road on a stretch of one win in seven matches, but they offer good value this weekend according to our internal prediction model.
Our prediction model gives United a 37.7% chance of winning, compared with the market’s implied probability of 32.1%. That represents a 17.5% edge relative to the market.
Let's dive into the odds.
Leeds vs. Manchester United odds
- Manchester United win: +205
- Leeds win: +140
- Draw +265
Odds accurate as of Friday, Oct. 16.
Leeds vs. Manchester United best bet
Our best bet for this game is Manchester United at +205 to win. United has undoubtedly been struggling, with just one win in its last seven games. But Michael Carrick's side may still be undervalued here.
Leeds
is four points clear of United in the Premier League table but neither side has been setting the world on fire recently. Both teams have an identical record of 1W-3D-1L in their last five league matches.
United has managed two draws in three away league matches this season, showing the ability to grind out results on the road. Leeds is unbeaten in three league games at home, but has just one win.
The Red Devils are also second in the Premier League with 5.33 shots on goal per game, while Leeds is 16th with 3.83 shots on goal per game. The underlying numbers suggest there is value to be had.
Leeds vs. Manchester United prediction
Prediction: Manchester United 2, Leeds 1
How to watch Leeds vs. Manchester United
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 18
- Time: 9 a.m. ET
- Location: Elland Road (Leeds, England)
- TV: USA Network (Watch LIVE on Sling TV)
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Premier League best bet: Manchester United offers value vs. Leeds
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