WASHINGTON — Democrats pulled off a stunning midterm rout by making sizable gains with nearly every major demographic ‒ across different age groups, races and income levels ‒ as Americans delivered one of the most resounding midterm rebukes in modern U.S. history.
The outcome nationally marked about a 15-point swing toward Democrats from the 2024 election, led by significant double-digit swings among young, Latino and first-time voters ‒ each groups that President Donald Trump had made inroads with in the 2024 election.
- Democrats won Hispanic voters by a 62%-35% margin nationally ‒ a 22-point swing after Democrat Kamala Harris won Hispanic voters 51%-46% in the 2024 election.
- Midterm voters younger than 30 years old backed Democrats by a whopping 72%-25% spread ‒ a 36-point swing after Trump only lost the group by 11 percentage points in 2024.
- Voters who cast their ballots for the first time in the midterm election backed Democrats 64%-34% ‒ a 41-point swing after Trump won first-time voters 55%-44% in the 2024 election
Figures are according to exit-poll data taken by the Associated Press in conjunction with the five major television networks, compared to exit polls in the 2024 election.
It was an unmistakable repudiation of Trump's second term.
Fueled by these and other significant demographic shifts, Democrats scored upset wins across the country, flipping at least seven Republican-held seats, including in traditionally Republican states such as Texas, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina. Texas hadn't elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988; and Kansas not since 1932, when Hebert Hoover was president.
Democrats have a chance to widen their Senate majority further with potential victories in Mississippi and Alaska ‒ two other reliably red states where Democrats are clinging to slim leads are votes are still being counted. Democrats also took control of the House of Representatives, flipping at least 29 seats previously held by Republicans, including in districts that Trump carried by more than 20 percentage points.
The shellacking for Republicans was across the board.
Americans who lack college degrees ‒ the backbone of Trump's MAGA base ‒ backed Republicans by only a four-point-margin, 51%-47%, in this year's midterms. It was a 9-point shift toward Democrats after Trump won non-college educated voters 56%-43% in 2024.
Democrats won college-educated voters ‒ a recent stronghold for the party ‒ by a 62%-36% margin. The 26-point difference was a swing of 12 percentage points toward Democrats from the 2024 election.
Amid concerns about the rising cost of living, Americans who earn $50,000 or less voted for Democrats 57%-41% ‒ a sizable 18-point shift after Trump won the same group 50%-48% in 2024. Democrats also won among voters who earn more than $100,000 by 12 percentage points, an 8-point swing after they won this group by four percentage points in 2024.
Longtime pollster Frank Luntz said most voters who went from casting ballots for Trump in 2024 to voting for Democrats in the midterms had one thing in common: they felt misled by Trump's campaign promise to lower costs.
"They felt disappointed and just disillusioned with what's happened over the past two years, specifically over affordability," Luntz said, pointing to findings in a focus group he conducted of Republican midterm voters from key battleground states. "They all ‒ no matter what part of the country they were from ‒ complained about how high prices had gotten and how they had been promised lower prices."
By far, the top midterm issue was the the economy, with 39% of voters calling it the most important issue facing the country, followed by the state of democracy at 32%, and immigration at 11%.
Male voters broke even in the midterms, with Democrats and Republicans getting support from 49% of men after Trump won male voters by a dozen percentage points in 2024. Democrats won female voters in the midterms by 18 percentage points, 58%-40% ‒ a shift of 10 points toward Democrats from 2024.
After losing Catholic voters by 20 percentage points in 2024, Democrats only lost them by 2 percentage points in the midterms. Republicans still won voters who identify as Protestant Christians by a wide 22 percentage points, but was a closer margin than the 27-point differential in the 2024 election.
One of the only demographics that shifted away from Democrats appeared to be Jewish voters. Though Jewish voters backed Democrats 68%-31% in the midterms, Harris won Jewish voters 78%-22% over Trump in the 2024 election. The shift comes as Israel's war in Gaza and U.S. military support for Israel have increasingly become galvanizing issue within the Democratic Party.
And despite the big night for Democrats, only 47% of midterm voters said they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party.
"This is no endorsement of the Democratic Party or the Democratic agenda," Luntz added. "It was rejection on what happened, or more importantly what didn't happen, over the last two years."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How major demographic shifts propelled Democrats to a midterm rout
