After the Los Angeles Dodgers eliminated the Atlanta Braves in Game 4 of the NLDS, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was asked by reporters when he'd rather face the Milwaukee Brewers or San
Diego Padres in the NLCS.
"I just want chaos," he said, drenched in beer as the clubhouse celebration ensued.
Two hours later, Friedman would have his answer. The Brewers punched their ticket, securing a rematch of the previous year's championship series. Don't expect a Dodgers sweep this time, though.
Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy loves to break out the "David vs. Goliath" narrative whenever his team plays the Dodgers and their exorbitant payroll. He'll wax poetic about how nobody can name their lineup compared to the star-studded roster in the other dugout. How they're "little woodpeckers" that just keep pecking away at the money tree that stands between them and their first pennant since 1982.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts isn't buying it.
"They have the best record in baseball," Roberts told reporters on Friday. "They have that for a reason, and they’ve got home-field advantage. So we got to play our best baseball. I mean, they’re certainly not afraid of us. They’ve got the guy who’s going to win the Cy Young in the National League, starting Game 1.
"We got our work cut out."
That they do. This year's Brewers are not the team that the Dodgers swept in 2025. They somehow got better after parting ways with Freddy Peralta and Caleb Durbin. Jacob Misiorowski and Jackson Chourio both took a leap this season, and Chourio's much healthier than when he was hampered by a hamstring injury last October. Logan Henderson is a bonafide No. 2 starter behind the Miz, and the back end of their bullpen has two anchors in Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe.
Here are three key factors that will decide the NLCS:
The Dodgers need to manufacture runs
The Dodgers offense has been streaky all season, but they haven't lacked for slugging. That carried over into the postseason, where they've led all teams with eight home runs in October. On the other hand, they were mostly unable to string hits and walks together against a depleted Braves pitching staff. It wasn't until the second inning of Game 4 on Mauricio Dubón's dropped pop up from Max Muncy allowed Shohei Ohtani to score that the Dodgers got their first run on a non-homer. Even then, they were still 0-for-15 with runners in scoring position until Andy Pages poked a two-out single up the middle to bring in the go-ahead runs in the seventh.
The Dodgers offense doesn't necessarily have to turn into the Brewers, who led the big leagues in team batting average and were fourth in stolen bases this season. But they're up against a pitching staff that does not give up the long ball. Misiorowski, MLB's strikeout leader in 2026, was third in expected slugging percentage (.255). Henderson, Megill and Uribe were all also in the top 20 in xSLG.
LA can get guys on base, but they have to bring them home.
Dodgers rotation depth
As formidable as the Miz and Henderson are, the Dodgers have two pitchers who are just as lethal with Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto set to start Games 1 and 2. Where they should have the edge, though, is the two games after that. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow round out the Dodgers rotation of four aces, but neither pitched particularly well in the NLDS.
Snell threw 90 pitches in just 3.2 innings against the Braves in Game 2, forcing the Dodgers into an impromptu bullpen game. He was able to limit damage while he was on the mound, giving up just one earned run, but Snell walked five batters. Glasnow threw 4.2 innings in Game 4 and also allowed a run with five walks. That can't happen against a Brewers lineup that was third in wOBA (weighted on-base average) this season.
Shohei Ohtani's health
Maybe the signature moment of Ohtani's career came against the Brewers one year ago, when he pitched six scoreless innings and mashed three home runs -- the last of which cleared the awning in the pavilion seats and left the ballpark entirely -- in a decisive Game 4 of the NLCS. What a difference a year makes.
Ohtani started the year with what looked like it could have been a Cy Young campaign. But lingering injuries to his right bicep and left knee shut him down from the mound in July and ultimately led to him to focus on just hitting for the remainder of this season. The Dodgers hoped an IL stint in September could reset some bad habits Ohtani developed while trying to play through pain, but the reigning back-to-back NL MVP still struggled at the plate down the stretch with an abysmal .566 OPS to close out the final month of the season.
He has yet to turn a corner in October and was dropped from leadoff to fifth in the lineup for Game 3 of the NLDS and hit from the cleanup spot in Game 4, though he still found a way to make an impact by drawing a walk in the second inning and immediately stealing second and advancing to third on a Braves throwing error. He then scored on a fielding error to tie the game early.
Ohtani is still Ohtani, though. He's clearly not 100%, but Dodgers brass still believes he'll have a breakthrough at some point this October.
"He’s the best player in the world," Friedman told reporters. "And at some point, it’s going to click for him, and the other team’s going to be in big trouble when that happens."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can Ohtani still be Ohtani? Three keys for Dodgers in NLCS vs. Brewers
