“The Pitt”stormed the Emmy Awards last year with three major wins, including best drama. Now comes the harder part: doing it again.
HBO Max’s medical drama returns for another shift as the most-nominated show at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, with25 nominations and defendingwinners Noah Wyle and Katherine LaNasa
positioned for another big night on Monday, Sept. 14. (NBC/Peacock 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT).The reigning Emmy champ has company. Jean Smart andHBO's “Hacks” are back for one final awards run, while Vince Gilligan’s “Pluribus” and fellow Apple TV breakout series “Widow’s Bay” lead a new wave looking to crash the party.
Here's who will win, and who should win, in the major categories on TV's biggest night.
Best drama series
- “The Diplomat”
- “The Gilded Age”
- "Knight of the Seven Kingdoms"
- “Paradise”
- “The Pitt”
- “Pluribus”
- “Slow Horses”
- “Your Friends & Neighbors”
Should win? "The Pitt"
Will win? "The
Pitt"
“The Pitt” met all the daunting expectations for Season 2 and more, with a heart-pounding and heartbreaking July 4 weekend shift at Pittsburgh Trauma Medical Center. The season somehow raised the stakes without messing with the formula that made its freshman season an Emmy champion. "The Pitt" looks to be the choice of Television Academy voters, fending off an Apple TV rush from "Pluribus, "Slow Horses" and "Friends & Neighbors." GoldDerby.com pundits give overwhelming "Pitt" odds, while prediction market Kalshigives the fan-favorite drama a 95% chance of taking the top prize.
Best comedy series
- “Abbott Elementary”
- “The Bear”
- “Hacks”
- “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
- “Nobody Wants This”
- “Only Murders in the Building”
- “Shrinking”
- “Widow’s Bay”
Should win? "Hacks"
Will win? "Widow's Bay"
Season 5 of “Hacks” looked like the comedy favorite after a triumphant series bow. And it’s hard not to want to give Jean Smart and company one final crowning trophy as the curtain falls on one of TV’s most acclaimed comedies, which first won the top prize in 2024.
Cue the creepy music. Quirky horror sensation “Widow’s Bay” has risen up to crash the Emmy party, turning best comedy into an increasingly lopsided two-show race. The Apple TV newcomer has all the momentum after leading last weekend’s Creative Arts Emmys with eight wins. Prediction market Kalshi now gives “Widow’s Bay” an 82%chance of taking the top prize.
Lead actor, drama series
- Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
- Steve Carell, “The Morning Show”
- Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
- Mark Ruffalo, "Task"
- Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
Should win? Noah Wyle
Will win? Noah Wyle
As Dr. Michael “Robby” Robinavitch, executive producer Noah Wyle is the tortured but unrelenting soul of “The Pitt,” carrying the weight of every patient lost while refusing to stop fighting. Robby made it onto his sabbatical motorcycle trip at season's end, and Wyle will make his second best actor trip to the awards podium in two years. (Kalshi lists Wyle's chances at 94%.)
Lead actress, drama series
- Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”
- Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments”
- Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
- Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus”
- Zendaya, “Euphoria”
Should win? Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus”
Will win? Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus”
Rhea Seehorn might have missed out on Emmy love over six seasons as Kim Wexler on “Better Call Saul" (two nominations, no wins). But as Carol Sturka in Vince Gilligan’s follow-up series, the actress shoulders almost every scene of “Pluribus,” playing one of the few people on Earth immune to the mysterious force that has transformed humanity into a relentlessly cheerful hive mind. This year, this show will rightfully end the shutout, even over Zendaya's final bowon "Euphoria" and Keri Russell's "The Diplomat." (Kalshiodds: 84% chance for Seehorn.)
Lead actor, comedy series
- Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “Wonder Man”
- Steve Carell, “Rooster”
- Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay”
- Jason Segel, “Shrinking”
- Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Should win? Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay”
Will win? Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay”
Starring as Mayor Tom Loftis, desperately trying to solve the supernatural mystery consuming his seemingly idyllic New England town in “Widow’s Bay,” double-nominated Matthew Rhys has become the story of this Emmy season. Rhys is hilarious and deeply human as the harried mayor in a horror-comedy redux of “Jaws,” confronting mounting horrors while trying to keep his island town – and its tourist economy – afloat. The Welsh actor will waltz to the awards podium for “Widow’s Bay" (Kalshi has 96%), but not for his far darker turn in Netflix’s “The Beast in Me,” his second 2026 nomination in the drama category.
Lead actress, comedy series
- Quinta Brunson, "Abbott Elementary"
- Ayo Edebiri, "The Bear"
- Elle Fanning, "Margo's Got Money Troubles"
- Lisa Kudrow, "The Comeback"
- Jean Smart, "Hacks"
Should win? Jean Smart, "Hacks"
Will win? Duh.
As Jean Smart walks away from the role of an already stellar career in “Hacks,” the actress deserves to take one more gold trophy with her – making it five for five glorious seasons as comedy legend Deborah Vance. Smart gave the fantastically complicated character a fitting final season – still ferocious and funny with flashes of vulnerability. Out of respect for Old School Vance, we won't even mention Kalshi. Sounds like a breakfast cereal.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who will win 2026 Emmys, and who should win – from 'The Pitt' to 'Widow's Bay'
