Election Day is Nov. 3, and Texas is on the ballot in ways it hasn't been in several generations — with several storylines for votersto watch come election night.
A Democrat is running competitively for U.S. Senate for the first time in decades. The governor's race is closer than either party expected, and a new congressional map will get its first real test.
Here's a guide to what's at stake and why it matters
From county commissioners all the way up to a U.S. Senate seat, there are hundreds of political candidates running for office — including those vying for state judicial seats at various levels. We have picked four key topics to focus on:
- Democrats eye Texas Senate flip
- Texas' chances of turning purple this year
- New redistricting map put to the test for Republicans
- The key issues driving Texans to the polls
Can Democrats flip the Texas Senate seat?
This is a decades-old question, and this time it is highly possible.
The last Democrat to hold a U.S. Senate
seat in Texas was Bob Krueger in 1993, when the last Democratic Texas Governor, Ann Richards, appointed him to fill the vacancy.
Polls over the past few monthssay it is certainly possible, with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding a one- to two-point lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. While some call it a lead, the poll margins show a statistical tie, meaning one strong donation, attack ad or scandal can send the race in any direction.
But two things matter: President Donald Trump's support and influence in the race — as he said earlier this year, he would campaign with Paxton — and voter turnout.
Voters will see Trump's immediate impact in the race, as he is set to be at the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas in September, but whether that's enough to rally support all the way to Nov. 3 remains to be seen.
Voter turnout, on the other hand, is one thing political analysts can only predict, as numerous factors draw people to and away from the polls. With the Texas Senate race a toss-up right now, only time will tell whether that will galvanize Democrats to the polls, since Texas has long been considered a safe state for Republicans.
Will Texas turn blue or at least purple this year?
Will Texas see a blue wave? No. Will it likely see several seats flip? Possibly.
While the Texas Senate is about control at the federal level, the governor holds the real power to lead the state, and other statewide offices have enormous regulatory control.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking his fourth term, is leading Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa in polling since the March primaries. However, Hinojosa has been within striking distance of office, keeping the gap between the two within single digits.
This is far better than what former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke did in 2022 against Abbott, when he lost by 11 points. And if Hinojosa wins, she will be the first Democratic governor in more than 30 years and the first Latina governor in Texas history.
While little polling has been done on other state races, the most recent polling shows Democrats keeping the races from attorney general down to land commissioner in the single digits, making it possible for both parties to hold various offices.
The last time both Democrats and Republicans won various statewide offices and held them simultaneouslywas in 1994.
Texas November midterm election ballot
- U.S. Senate: Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D).
- Governor: Greg Abbott (R) vs. Gina Hinojosa (D).
- Lieutenant Governor: Dan Patrick (R) vs. Vikki Goodwin (D).
- Attorney General: Mayes Middleton (R) vs. Nathan Johnson (D).
- Comptroller of Public Accounts: Don Huffines (R) vs. Sarah Eckhardt (D).
- Commissioner of the General Land Office: Dawn Buckingham (R) vs. Benjamin Flores (D).
- Commissioner of Agriculture: Nate Sheets (R) vs. Clayton Tucker (D).
- Railroad Commissioner: Bo French (R) vs. Jon Rosenthal (D).
What wins will the new redistricting map deliver for both parties?
At President Trump's request last year, Texas Republicans pushed through a redistricting map to help ensure they would gain five new seats in the U.S. House. After many legal battles, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the map constitutional in December 2025, and this will be the first election cycle under the new map, with many watching to see whether Republicans show a net gain.
The five districts Republicans targeted were the Texas 9th in Houston, the 28th and 35th near San Antonio, the 32nd in Dallas and the 34th in the Rio Grande Valley.
Texas is also seeing 10 open U.S. House races, including the 21st and 38th, where its current Republican seat holders — U.S. Reps. Chip Roy and Wesley Hunt — ran and failed to secure the party's nomination in other races earlier in the year.
Trump has weighed in on all six open U.S. House seats currently held by Republicans in the state, except in the Texas 19th — currently held by Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Lubbock.
5 key battleground districts to watch
Here are five congressional battleground districts to watch and why.
- Texas 15th Congressional District
- Candidates: Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R) vs. Democrat Bobby Pulido
- Why: Cook Political Report downgraded this race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" in July, stating that due to unique factors, "De La Cruz faces a serious challenge from Tejano musician Pulido."
- Texas 23rd Congressional District
- Candidates: Republican Brandon Herrera vs. Democrat Katy Padilla Stout
- Why: Rep. Tony Gonzalez was widely reported to have an affair with a staffer, which caused him to suspend his reelection campaign and resign his seat, leaving it open. Cook Political Report moved this race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican."
- Texas 28th Congressional District
- Candidates: Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) vs. Republican Tano Tijerina
- Why: Was part of the Republicans' redistricting efforts to gain more seats in the U.S. House, making the race a genuine incumbent-versus-map contest to see if the GOP picks up the seat.
- Texas 34th Congressional District
- Candidates: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs. Republican Eric Flores
- Why: Considered a toss-up by Cook Political Report and was also part of the Republicans' redistricting efforts.
- Texas 35th Congressional District
- Candidates: Republican Carlos De La Cruz vs. Democrat Johnny Garcia
- The seat is open and was part of Republicans' redistricting efforts. It also swung from "Solid Democratic" to "Likely Republican" in August, according to the Cook Political Report.
What issues are driving Texans to the polls?
Affordability. Property Taxes. Data Centers.
Two of the three break along partisan lines for how people want to address the affordability crisis and how best to handle property taxes. However, data centers are the one rare issue in Texas that unites both sides of the aisle.
Recent polling shows that Texans do not want data centers built in their communities, and state leaders — including Gov. Abbott — are quickly trying to regulate the industry years after it took hold in the state.
Over the past few months, officials in cities like San Marcos and counties like Hood and Hill have been actively trying to press pause on data center construction across the state, while Texans consistently voice concerns about the centers' impact on local and state water and energy resources.
Texas Gov. Abbott and state regulators took actions over June and Julyto help regulate the industry; however, Democrats like Hinojosa have called them out for allowing them into the state in the first place and flipping their position
It's only a matter of time before we see whether the once-bright promise of data centers will hurt Republicans, as Democrats are making it a key issue in this election.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Texas is on the ballot in 2026. Here's what's at stake in November
