A powerful Pacific storm is drawing increasing attention from forecasters after the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday expanded the forecast cone for Hurricane Rachelinto California.
While the system is expected to weaken before reaching the state this weekend, meteorologists warn it could still bring several hazards typically associated with tropical systems, including heavy rain, gusty winds, dangerous surf, and localized flooding.
Current forecasts show Rachel approaching Southern California as a post-tropical cyclone early Sunday, with a projected landfall area roughly 100 miles south of San Diego. However, the center's forecast cone stretches as far north as Orange County.
Forecasters stress that details could change considerably over
the coming days, but Californians, particularly in Southern California and desert communities, should begin monitoring updates closely.
Why Hurricane Rachel could still affect California
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California's coastal waters are generally too cool to sustain a tropical hurricane. As Rachel moves north, forecasters expect it to undergo what's known as an "extratropical transition," a process in which a hurricane loses its classic tropical structure while retaining significant moisture, wind, and energy.
That transition does not eliminate the threat.
Even as a weakening post-tropical system, Rachel could carry a deep plume of tropical moisture into Southern California and the Southwest, fueling periods of heavy rain, strong winds and rough ocean conditions.
The National Hurricane Center has warned that uncertainty remains higher than normal regarding the storm's strength later in the forecast period. Forecasters say Rachel could retain tropical-storm-force winds, defined as sustained winds of at least 39 mph, as it approaches the region.
Heavy rain and flash flooding are among the biggest concerns
The National Weather Service currently highlights a marginal risk of excessive rainfall from Malibu through Los Angeles and into San Diego County on Sunday.
While that designation represents the lowest level on the agency's four-tier scale, tropical systems can produce intense downpours in a short period, especially in mountains, burn scars, canyons, and urban areas with poor drainage.
Forecasters have also identified a slight risk of flash flooding for inland areas including the San Bernardino Mountains, Palm Springs, Las Vegas and Phoenix.
Rainfall forecasts remain subject to change, but residents in flood-prone areas should review emergency plans and stay alert for potential watches and warnings as the weekend approaches.
Dangerous surf and rip currents already increasing
Even before Rachel reaches California, the storm is generating ocean swells that are expected to increase the risk of dangerous rip currents along much of the Southern California coast.
Forecasters say Orange and San Diego counties face the greatest risk of large waves and rough surf this weekend. Beach erosion, hazardous swimming conditions and dangerous conditions for boaters are also possible.
The strongest ocean impacts may arrive before the storm center, so beachgoers should exercise caution even if skies remain relatively clear.
Where California could see the greatest impacts
San Diego County
San Diego sits closest to the forecast track and could experience the strongest winds, heaviest rain bands and highest surf if Rachel remains on its current course. Although the National Hurricane Center currently places the odds of tropical-storm-force winds below 10%, those probabilities could rise if the storm tracks farther north.
Orange County
Orange County falls within the northern edge of the forecast cone. Residents could experience gusty winds, periods of rain, dangerous surf and beach erosion, particularly along exposed coastal communities.
Los Angeles County
Los Angeles faces a risk of heavy rain and localized flooding Sunday. Urban flooding, slick roads and isolated debris flows near recent wildfire burn scars could become concerns if heavier bands of tropical moisture move ashore.
Inland Empire and mountain communities
Higher elevations in the San Bernardino and Riverside County mountains could experience stronger wind gusts than lower elevations. Areas around Big Bear are among those highlighted for an elevated flash-flood risk.
Coachella Valley and desert communities
Palm Springs and surrounding desert communities could see periods of heavy rain capable of producing rapid flooding in washes, low-water crossings, and typically dry creek beds, similar to impacts seen during Tropical Storm Hilary in 2023.
Central Coast and Northern California
At this time, significant impacts appear less likely farther north. However, forecasters caution that tropical systems can shift track and spread moisture far beyond their center. Northern California residents should continue monitoring forecasts, particularly if the storm's path trends northward.
How rare is a tropical system reaching California?
No recorded hurricane has made landfall in California while maintaining hurricane strength. However, remnants of tropical systems occasionally push into the state.
The most recent example was Tropical Storm Hilary in 2023, which crossed into Southern California after making landfall in Mexico and produced widespread flooding, road closures, and emergency rescues across desert communities.
Rachel's eventual impacts remain uncertain, but the storm already reminds us that California is not immune to tropical weather threats, especially during late summer and early fall, when eastern Pacific hurricane activity typically peaks.
What residents should do now
- Monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Avoid entering the ocean if rip-current warnings are issued.
- Clear storm drains and gutters around homes.
- Prepare for possible power outages and travel disruptions.
- Know whether you live in an area prone to flooding, debris flows or coastal erosion.
Forecasters emphasize that Californians should focus less on the exact center line and more on the broader range of possible impacts. Even a weakened Rachel could bring a combination of heavy rain, strong winds, and dangerous surf to Southern California by Sunday.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Rachel may weaken, but California flooding threats could grow
