Young Americans are less likely head to the polls this midterm cycle than in previous years, but those who do plan to vote are more likely to prefer Democratic candidates and cast votes in opposition to President Donald Trump, according to a Harvard Youth Poll released on Oct. 22.
"Big-picture central finding is that young voters are poised to deliver a sharp rebuke to President Trump, while the broader generation is sending a message to those in power," John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics, said in a press call on Oct. 21.
Nationwide polling this year has suggested that young people are moving away from Trump and preferred Democrats in the midterms at higher rates than the general population.
The new Harvard Youth Poll – which was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 7 among a group of 2,024 Americans ages 18 to 29 years old – largely reveals a similar trend among young voters.
Among the notable findings:
- Young voters who prefer Democratic candidates are slightly more likely to see their vote as "against" Republicans rather than a vote "for" Democrats.
- Fifty percent of young Democrats say they'll cast votes, compared to 34% of young Republicans.
- Financial concerns topped the list of reasons young people gave for going to vote.
- Among young men – a group that helped power Trump's return to the White House – 58% preferred Democrats and 32% chose Republicans.
Young voters are less likely to cast midterm ballots than in previous years
The new release from Harvard – the poll's 53rd edition – revealed a 16-point partisan gap in expected participation in the midterms. Thirty-three percent of young voters say they'll definitely cast ballots, including 50% of Democrats and 34% of Republicans.
The Republican coalition features its own split, with 50% of MAGA Republicans planning to vote and only 29% of non-MAGA Republicans.
Those numbers are down from the 2018 and 2022 midterms, when 40% of young Americans said they would vote. The drop in expected voter participation in the age group is driven by young Republicans, 43% of whom said they would vote in 2018 and 46% in 2022, according to Harvard.
Young people typically turn out to vote at lower rates than older populations, and other polls this cycle have revealed that trend is expected to continue. In a September Marquette Law School poll, only 56% of young voters were "absolutely certain” or "very likely" to vote, compared with 73% of the whole electorate.
Still, the group made strides in participation in the 2018 and 2022 midterms. In 2018, a record-high 36% of young people turned out to vote, compared with the typical 15-20% rate in prior midterms. There was still a gap, though, compared to all eligible voters participating between 52% and 54% in 2018 and 2022.
Democrats lead young voters – and young men – on generic ballot
Democrats hold an advantage on the generic ballot among young people, a gap that also holds true for the larger population in broader polling.
Particularly notable is that the lead holds up among young men – a group that Republicans made gains with in 2024 and who helped send Trump back to the White House – with 58% choosing Democrats and 32% choosing Republicans in the latest Harvard poll.
Among all young registered voters in Harvard's poll, 45% prefer Democrats, compared to 24% who prefer Republican candidates. When the Harvard researchers zoomed in on those who reported that they are likely to vote, that Democratic advantage grew to 63% favoring Democrats and 26% preferring Republicans.
The Democratic advantage on the generic ballot showed up in nearly every sub group, according to the researchers. Among young women, 66% preferred Democrats to 21% choosing Republicans.
Young rural voters, however, were the exception, with the Democratic Party only holding a one-point preference lead over Republicans, with a 43%-42% split.
Young people are voting 'against' Republicans and struggling in Trump's economy
The poll also reported a strong opposition to Trump among young Americans who say they will definitely vote.
Sixty-three percent of them said their vote is in opposition to the president, compared to only 14% saying their vote is in support of him.
Among those young voters who prefer Democratic candidates, 51% say their vote is more "against" Republicans, while only 49% say it is a vote "for" Democrats.
Financial concerns topped the list of reasons young people gave for voting, with 91% listing the cost of living as a motivator, 77% saying they disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, and almost half saying their personal financial situation has worsened. Even 48% of young Republicans disapproved of the current economy.
"We see for the first time a shift where we see more pessimism than optimism on that question," Della Volpe said of a report that only a quarter of young Americans expect to be better off than their parents at the same age.
Young people saw the power of large corporations, AI replacing jobs and the wealth of billionaires as threats to their financial security.
"The challenge I think for leaders is to make life more affordable and give young people concrete reasons to believe that participating in politics and in civic life can improve their futures," Della Volpe said.
Also topping the list of motivators for young voters was corruption in government (88%), U.S. involvement in wars (83%), the cost of health care (83%) and freedom in election (82%).
Also: Congressional stock trade ban, Medicare for All and trust in elections
The poll also reported that only 34% of young Americans trust that the midterm elections will be fair and accurate. This comes while Trump, who still falsely asserts he won the 2020 election, has referenced foreign intervention fears and while suspicious letters with an "unknown substance" were sent to election offices across the country.
The researchers also noted populist trends in Gen Z, revealing that 63% support banning members of Congress and their spouses from trading stock, 57% support Medicare for All (including support from 39% of Republicans) and 54% want an annual wealth tax on those who make above $50 million (supported by 42% of Republicans).
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New poll reveals where young voters stand as midterms near
