The Texas governor's race is starting to look less safe for Republicans, with two election forecasters moving it toward a toss-up as polling trends edge toward Democrats.
Fox News updated its power rankings on Sept. 22 for the 2026 midterm elections and shifted the race between Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
The news outlet cited data center construction's impact on resources and residents' concerns as a top issue for Texans as they head to the polls on Nov. 3.
This movement also comes after RealClearPolitics on Sept. 17, a polling data aggregator, moved the race between Abbott and Hinojosa from Republican leaning to a toss up.
The data aggregator shows that since April 29,
2026, Hinojosa has cut Abbott's average poll lead from 7 percentage points down to 2.2 percentage points as of Sept. 22.
A month ago, the Cook Political Reportmoved the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" for several reasons—mainly because Abbott wasn't spending much money on attack ads at the time.
This shift follows a recent poll released by Texas Southern University released on Sept. 22 shows that Abbott leads Hinojosa by 4 percentage points, 49%-45%.
Here's what the poll shows and how it compares with the rest of the September polls.
Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa in Texas governor's race
The TSU poll was conducted Sept. 15-19 and surveyed 1,800 Texans likely to vote in the November 2026 election, with a margin of error of 2.31 percentage points.
It found that 99% of likely voters know enough about Abbott to have an opinion of him. In contrast, only 79% of voters know enough about Hinojosa to have an opinion of her.
The poll also found that Abbott has a slight negative favorability rating, viewed favorably by 49% of likely voters and unfavorably by 50%. Hinojosa has a positive favorability rating, being viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 37%.
Here is a look at how the different voter groups are breaking in the race, according to the poll:
- White voters: Abbott 59%, Hinojosa 35%.
- Latino voters: Hinojosa 57%, Abbott 40%.
- Black voters: Hinojosa 80%, Abbott 13%
- Men: Abbott 54%, Hinojosa 39%.
- Women: Hinojosa 51%, Abbott 44%.
On voter age, Abbott leads 60% to 36% among likely voters age 55 and older. Meanwhile, Hinojosa leads 50% to 44% among likely voters ages 35 to 54 and 71% to 21% among likely voters under 35.
Recent Texas governor's race polls
Here's a look at recent September polling as the race enters its final stretch:
- Emerson College Polling (Sept. 17 ) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 46%.
- ReconMR Texas poll (Sept. 17) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 45%.
- Mason-Dixon Polling (Sept. 15) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 41%.
- SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 44%.
- N+ Univision(Sept. 9) — Abbott 47%, Hinojosa 47%.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Gov. Greg Abbott faces growing challenge in Texas governor's race
