Why clarity in Mississippi Senate election could come by week's end

With multiple deadlines approaching in Mississippi's process of counting and reporting votes, it's possible the state's Senate election outcome could become clear by the end of the week, especially if one candidate has a significant margin.

Mississippi Democratic challenger Scott Colom was narrowly leading incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith as of 12:06 p.m. ET on Nov. 10, with a margin of more than 2,500 votes in a race with about 1 million votes counted, according to results posted by the Associated Press. The AP estimated about 97% of the total votes have been counted.

"I think we'll start to see some clarity over the next couple of days, and see whether or not the margin gets to the point where the race can be called, regardless of the outstanding

ballots," David Becker, a former DOJ voting rights lawyer who runs the Center for Election Innovation & Research, said on a Nov. 10 call with reporters.

The Mississippi and Alaska Senate races have been too close too call since Election Day on Nov. 3, as ballots have continued arriving. The two battleground states will decide just how large Democrats' incoming Senate majority is. Democrats and independents who caucus with them currently have 54 of the total incoming 100 Senate seats.

Colom's margin has been growing over the past week, leading him to project confidence as vote counting continues. He was leading by fewer than 100 votes the afternoon of Nov. 4, the day after Election Day.

"I follow Mississippi politics. It always – the affidavit and absentee ballots always trend Democratic," Colom told CNN's Anderson Cooper on Nov. 9. He predicted that enough results would come in by Nov. 11 for the election results to be clear.

At this time, there still could be enough outstanding votes to sway results.

Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson said in a Nov. 4 statement that about 3,600 mail-in ballots, which were legally permitted to arrive and be counted up until Nov. 10 if postmarked by Election Day, were still outstanding.

Watson estimated Nov. 5 that there were also "between 12,000 and 20,000 affidavit ballots remaining uncounted," speaking during an interview with Jackson, Mississippi, news outlet WLBT. Mississippi affidavit ballots are ballots that need to be further evaluated, to ensure the voter is legally eligible to vote. Watson said the rate of accepting those ballots at the time of his interview was 76%.

Mississippi's affidavit ballots include voters who appeared at polls without an adequate ID to vote, as well as voters who are listed as "inactive" voters. For the voters dealing with ID issues, they have until Nov. 10 to bring in an adequate ID to correct their affidavit ballots. Voters listed as "inactive" generally shouldn't have to do anything more, Becker said. Election officials simply need to confirm eligibility before processing those ballots.

"By the end of the day, we should know what the universe of ID-corrected affidavit ballots and uncorrected affidavit ballots was in Mississippi, and what the universe of mail ballots that were delivered within the proper time frame were," Becker said.

"So I think tomorrow will likely be a very important day in Mississippi," Becker said.

Nov. 13 is another key deadline for developments in Mississippi: All 82 counties must certify their results by that day to Watson's office.

Mississippi law doesn't provide for an automatic recount in the state, but the candidate who is losing in the final count could still go to court to try to get a recount.

However, if the margin of that candidate's apparent loss is greater than 1,000 votes, Becker said it's unlikely a recount will change the outcome.

"To my knowledge, and I've looked into this quite a bit, there has never been a statewide election in American history with an initial margin of more than 1,000 votes that's been overturned by a court or a recount, subsequently," Becker said.

When will Alaska's Senate race be called?

Results in Alaska's Senate race probably still have a way to go. As of 10:23 a.m. ET on Nov. 10, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola was leading incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by a little more than 2,500 voters, but with only about 76% of the votes counted, in the AP's estimate.

The specific nature of Alaska's voting system, where many ballots come in from remote precincts, makes getting results in the state take longer in close races. The state also has a significant population of military voters, whose ballots can arrive up to 15 days after Election Day, as long as they were postmarked by Election Day.

If no candidate in Alaska gets more than 50% of the vote, Alaska's ranked-choice voting system comes into play, which could mean further delays. Under state law, the ranked-choice tally wouldn't start until Nov. 18.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why clarity in Mississippi Senate election could come by week's end