The polls are getting louder. Senate candidate James Talarico might very well be the first Democrat elected to Texas statewide office in more than 30 years. An Oct. 3 New York Times/Siena College poll puts Talarico ahead of state Attorney General Ken Paxton by 6 percentage points.
That’s not the only poll declaring the Democratic state legislator the front-runner in the race for a U.S. Senate seat. In September, eight pollsters had Talarico ahead of Republican Paxton in the Nov. 3 midterm elections by various degrees.
Whether these polls come true remains to be seen. As we have learned time and again, polls aren’t always trustworthy. But one thing is clear: Talarico is moving the needle in a state known as a GOP stronghold. Even if we don’t know the outcome
yet, it’s clear that he’s making Republicans sweat in a state they normally wouldn’t worry about.
It’s not hard to understand why people like Talarico. The seminarian and member of the state House of Representatives is delivering a message of hope and progress, one that Texas Democrats have longed to hear for years now.
“Talarico is a good campaigner,” Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told me. “He is efficient on the stump, he is disciplined when it comes to messaging, and he’s got just enough of a fresh approach that people are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.”
As the rest of the nation waits to see what comes out of the Lone Star State, I looked at the factors that are contributing to a potential blue wave in a deep red state. And while I’m still unsure that Talarico will eke out a victory, it’s clear that the momentum behind his campaign is motivating Democrats ahead of the midterms.
Why Talarico stands out in a red state like Texas
While Talarico is a good candidate by any party’s standards, his opponent is not. Paxton has even been admonished by President Donald Trump, who endorsed him in the Republican primary but has also made fun of the way his candidate dresses and talks, going so far as to say that the Texas attorney general is “a pain in the (expletive).”
Meanwhile, Paxton recently admitted that Republican operatives in Washington, DC – not Texans – are the ones pulling the strings in his campaign, according to Politico. Clearly, he is willing to weather the meddling and personal attacks from the president if it means becoming the next U.S. senator.
“Paxton will take the swings and arrows if it means that he’s going to get Donald Trump to push him over the edge,” Rottinghaus said.
The professor notes that part of what makes Paxton a weak candidate is his marred ethics over the years. In 2023, the Texas House introduced 20 articles of impeachment against the state attorney general. He has also been accused of having an extramarital affair by his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton. It would be one thing if Paxton possessed a Trumpian charisma to overcompensate for previous dilemmas. Yet on the stump, he has a hard time getting the message across.
“He’s a rusty campaigner,” Rottinghaus said. “He’s not that good at it, he’s not practiced at it, and as a result he simply comes off as not very effective.”
Meanwhile, Talarico has been a chameleon throughout his time on the campaign trail: managing to present as a progressive and a moderate, a preacher and a secular politician. He’s walked back some of his stances that put him further left than the Texas population but continues to see support among Democrats. That has made it hard for Republicans to pin him down in their advertising blitz against him.
They’ve tried, of course. It’s hard to hear the name “Talarico” without thinking of Paxton’s nickname for him, “Talafreako.” Republicans have also tried tying the Democrat to the LGBTQ+ community in a negative way, such as using artificial intelligence to put Talarico in a dress or pointing out that he has a favorite drag queen.
Voters can see through these attacks, and it’s embarrassing that Texas Republicans think this will scare enough of their own into voting.
The reality is that Talarico might just be another Beto O'Rourke
In some ways, this Texas Senate race feels like a repeat of the matchup between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke in 2018. O’Rourke drummed up a lot of national media attention, only to lose by 2.6 points.
“You’ve got a nationally competitive race, and you’ve got down-ballot races that are juicing up turnout across the state,” Rottinghaus said. “In a way, the structural pattern politically looks very similar to the way it did in 2018. It’s not exactly the same – in fact, in some ways it’s better for Democrats.”
The professor's referring to some of the facts: Talarico is polling better than O’Rourke did, while Trump is polling worse than he was in 2018. It doesn’t mean that Talarico is destined to win – I don’t think anybody believes that, even Democrats – but it’s clear that he has a shot. Republicans certainly seem to think so.
I'm still not sure how I feel about Talarico. In March, I was disappointed that the state lawmaker beat out U.S. House Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. But I think Talarico's the best shot Democrats have in Texas, and his win would be well-deserved and ultimately better for Texas.
Follow USA TODAY columnist Sara Pequeño on Bluesky: @sarapequeno.bsky.social
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Polls are shouting in favor of Talarico in Texas. We'll see | Opinion
